With voting in the GOP presidential primary set to begin in less than one month, conservative commentator Laura Ingraham analyzed Pennsylvania’s electoral landscape with its former Governor Ed Rendell.
Broadcasting locally on King of Prussia’s WFYL 1180 AM this Monday, Rendell joined Ingraham and her six million listeners to help summarize Barack Obama’s 2012 prospects in the Keystone State.
PA's challenging polling data
After touching on Obama’s campaign stop at Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton last Friday, the interview moved on to a November Quinnipiac poll reporting Pennsylvania voters disapprove (52% - 44%) of the president’s job performance and say he does not deserve reelection by a margin of 50% - 46%.
Ingraham also cited a report from Public Policy Polling, observing, “Obama leads Gingrich 49% to 43%…and Romney’s tied with Obama at 45% in Pennsylvania.”
National polls confirm the president’s eroding support is not confined to the Keystone State.
Gallup’s daily tracking poll for December 6th measured Obama’s nationwide job approval at 41% with a disapproval rate of 51%.
Rendell analyzes Pennsylvania in 2012
Ingraham asked the governor to outline the geographic and demographic hurdles Barack Obama must overcome to carry the state in 2012.
Ed Rendell broke down the political landscape by making three points:
First, the former governor emphasized the role of independents in Obama's relection campaign.
“Well, start off with independents; he did a great job in winning a strong majority of independents in 2008. Right now he’s not going to do that again. If the candidate is someone like Romney or even Gingrich – who is saying things that independents don’t get their back up immediately on – he’s going to lose a significant percentage of the margin he had for independent voters.”
Second, Rendell expressed concern that the base of the Democrat Party in Pennsylvania would remain depressed in 2012.
“If the Republicans – as they did in 2004 – do a great job in turning out their base and our base is a little dispirited, if that’s the case – and I’m not saying it will be, but right now that might be the case – that turnout difference might be crucial.” he argued.
Third, he highlighted the need for Barack Obama to improve his continuing underperformance among white working class voters.
“Where the president has to grow is in white blue collar working class families. He lost those, so although he carried Lackawanna county where Scranton is [in 2008], he didn’t carry it as much as he should have – and particularly with Joe Biden on the ticket.” Rendell explained.
“And he lost eleven out of the twelve southwest Pennsylvania counties that traditionally have been Democratic voting counties. The only one he carried was Alleghany, and in Alleghany he was helped by a tremendous African-American turnout in Pittsburgh.” he elaborated.
A winning argument?
In spite of these obstacles Rendell insisted the electoral outlook in the Keystone State was salvageable.
He maintained the Republican Party’s opposition to Barack Obama on issues like infrastructure spending had cost them support among the white working class.
“If I were the president I would ignore Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich, or whoever the Republican candidate is, and I would just run against the Republican congress.” Rendell advised.
In 2012, PA Yeah or Nay
Rendell insisted this strategy was feasible by pointing to Democrat Harry Truman’s 1948 defeat of Thomas Dewey – with the incumbent president running against “a do-nothing congress.”
However, Truman was able to run against congress because it was under Republican control in 1948 whereas today the GOP holds only the lower chamber.
Rather than replicating Truman’s triumph, this approach might present an image of either an inability to manage Washington or an incapacity for bipartisanship.
Regardless, there’s no telling what events will unfold between now and 2012.
But if an incumbent president has to dust off a campaign strategy from 65 years in the past, it raises at least some doubt about his prospects of winning the future.
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Ed Rendell calls Obama reelection plan “lunacy” is available here
A free podcast of Laura Ingraham’s complete interview with Ed Rendell is available here
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