Jobs growth will not weaken in 2013, according to USD professor Alan Gin, one of the panel member at the annual San Diego County Economic Roundtable held on January 25th. "Solid but not spectacular growth is expected in the year ahead," he said.
Even construction jobs are expected to get a push after a year in 2012 the jobs gain in the industry was over 1,000 jobs and more builders got a building permit in hand. The worker numbers joining the workforces in administrative positions and in the leisure and hospitality and healthcare markets were main keys to last year's recovery, adding up to over 12,000 jobs. The same industry markets are expected to produce the main jobs growth during a year Gin forecasts up to 25,000 new jobs will get added to the 1.25 million person workforce in San Diego County.
The still high unemployment rate will return to 8 percent, Gin said, a decent drop after a year the rate fell over 1 percent, though the jobs growth Gin forecasts is more sober than the growth forecast by SANDAG's Marney Cox who forecast 7.5 percent unemployment, and told the audience at the Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace & Justice, "it's the labor market "that reveals the strength in the local recovery now, instead of "the economy, stupid."
Weakened industry market in San Diego have done their jobs trimming, and the growth opportunities are mounting back towards the time before the peak in the middle of the first decade in the 2000s. Home building began its recovery last year, following the 2010 return of sales growth. Market Pointe Realty Advisors reported new home sales were back up t 2,794 after hitting bottom in 2011 at 2,067, less than one seventh the count in 2004.
Multi-family housing, however, still makes up a majority of the new market. Largely apartments. Condominium projects will add to the sales count in the coming years, but the single family home market still is not the rock it once was.
Milestones in project starts will come. The jobs backslide in the home building market is in the past. One main regret remains. The lack of change in family incomes has made clear the increased productivity that has strengthened the economy has not yet put San Diegans at ease.
The recovery from a wage gap that grew further out of proportion during the recession stays flat. No promising an permanent progress has been made.
With the county population heading towards 3.4 million by 2020, the swing back to an economy with enough good paying jobs has to sweep through an economy that will have a outgoing manufacturing market, and last long.
The damage done by the cancellation of 70 local projects that cost San Diego 1.24 billion dollars will not any longer put of a return to a normal economy Supervisor Diane Jacobs said was possible during the opening of the roundtable discussion. Start up stops have not ruined the economy.
One to two percent jobs growth will last another year. Adding twenty thousand jobs in 2012 was just the beginning of a long period of jobs growth that must replace the near 85,000 jobs lost in 2008 to 2010.
San Diego is off and running. Another year of recovery results has started.
This article is the latest developing news article for Open Commitments on every second Wednesday. On the other Wednesdays the articles are telling commentaries for Post Edition.
To read earlier articles, read
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