Will "The Big One" strike LA at dawn on July 12, 2014?
One earthquake aficionado has been sounding the alarm, saying... maybe.
But, this time, he's getting a lot more attention because of the logic and reasoning he employs when considering if there are bellwether events which could aid in more reliable earthquake predictions.
David Nabhan, an admittedly amateur scientist, did spend 30 years in front of the classroom teaching science, so his credentials will always be looked at suspiciously by legitimate academicians who seem reluctant to consider that earthquake prediction is a worthy subject for study and not just metaphysical quackery.
In an interview with Scott Cox of First Look, Nabhan, author of the new book Earthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Sight, calmly glosses over the slights he's endured from seismologists over the last two decades while he's been formulating his theory and gathering empirical evidence to prove it.
They just don't get it.
Whether it's because of the fear of being ostracized by colleagues, or if there is some more insidious reason why scientists turn a blind eye to any theory not sanctioned by their leading thinkers, it seems some of Nabhan's proofs are starting to chisel away at bullheaded resistance.
Maybe because his ideas make sense?
In a nutshell, Nabhan believes that unusual tidal forces converging several times a year are a more likely time for major earthquakes to occur. It's during those times that more gravitational pressure is applied on the planet and causes greater stress at fault points like the one near Los Angeles, the San Andreas.
And the next convergence will occur in the dawn hours of July 12, 2014.
David Nabhan isn't saying a major earthquake will definitely happen, only that's it's more likely. And he points out the last six major earthquakes in Southern California (which he defines as "killer" quakes) have all occurred in the dawn or dusk hours as the lunar tidal forces were at their peak.
That's pretty compelling evidence.
Nabhan is calling on seismologists to chuck their egos and consider his theory, all in the hopes of better preparedness. Will there be any harm in emergency forces being on heightened alert on Saturday? Or, indeed, any time these tidal convergences occur?
Considering that reliable earthquake prediction is the Holy Grail for seismologists, it seems ludicrous such logical reasoning would be discounted just because the messenger doesn't have a Ph.D.
But, if David Nabhan is right...
The world will know for sure sometime Saturday morning.
What do you think?
Click the video to watch the David Nabhan interview with Scott Cox on First Look and leave a comment below.