Again, the earlier you buy Joe Duffy’s Picks, the better for CLV (closing line value). We continue to move the line 1.5 points per game, but that is what happens when you have been winning for approaching 27 years. We go 2-0 led by Boston College outright. Tonight, get three college basketball winners led by a Wise Guy. Quite frankly, Joe Duffy’s Picks is only for those who believe winning is the only option. Sweep again tonight as despite some brutal losers, we are 13-7 the last 20 with premium picks. Get a long-term package to access immediately and be on the right side of CLV at OffshoreInsiders.com
Now for a free bonus winner it is to go with:
DUKE -1.5 North Carolina
One of the qualities that separates the sharps from the squares is that when analyzing how a team plays on the road, it’s travel even more so than raucous that negatively affects the road team.
Obviously travel is not an issue as the distance between the two schools is less than I often go for quality take-out pizza. The road team is 22-8 against the spread in the series, including the Blue Devils 6-1 at UNC.
It’s not that home court is irrelevant it’s just that because of lack of travel, it is about a 1.5 less than normal home court edge and as we preach time and time again, handicapping is about exploiting an edge like that. What Joeybagofdonuts does not realize how big a 1.5 or two-point off line is.
The Blue Devils are 20-2 straight up against unranked opponents this season. Duke has won four of its past five road games. The only loss during that stretch came at No. 2 Syracuse, 91-89, in overtime.
Guess who is peaking at the perfect time? Duke has won nine of its past 10 games with the lone loss during that stretch coming at the hands of now-No. 1 Syracuse, 91-89, in overtime. Duke has beaten seven of those 10 opponents by 15 points or more.
Most importantly, they have covered 8-of-9. Five of those covers were by 11.5 or more indicating the oddsmakers have not caught up to how much the Devils have improved.
True, UNC is on a nice spread run, but since Dec. 5, they only have two double-digit covers, so they have benefitted from some close covers as during that span, they have had four Vegas setbacks of at least 12.5.
Look for the Blue Devils to win one on the road, Tobacco Road that is.
Joe Duffy’s free picks DUKE -1.5.