The new trend in Fantasy Football Drafting is waiting for a quarterback in later rounds. I am going to tell you why this trend won't get you a trophy. I keep hearing “I am going to wait on a quarterback and load up on other positions.” This sounds great in theory but when you look at the real numbers, this just doesn't work. The fantasy quarterback is a fairly deep, but that doesn't mean you should wait on the ones that no one else wants as a starter.
There is nothing wrong with drafting a running back or receiver with your first couple picks and waiting on a guys like Romo, Kaepernick or Matt Ryan. Having a well rounded team is never a bad thing but waiting till late in the draft to grab Flacco, Dalton or someone else is taking too big of a risk. While your sitting back “loading” up on other positions your opponents are drafting quarterbacks that will outscore your eventual quarterback by 70-80 points in the season.
The NFL has gone to more of a running back committee, so I would rather have one of the top quarterbacks that touch the ball on every offensive play. Just take a look at the 2011 and 2012 fantasy stats and you will see the difference in consistency of the quarterback and other positions.
Top Fantasy Scoring Quarterbacks
2012 2011
1. Drew Brees 1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady 2. Drew Brees
3. Aaron Rodgers 3. Tom Brady
4. Cam Newton 4. Cam Newton
5. Peyton Manning 5. Matthew Stafford
Top Fantasy Scoring Running Backs
2012 2011
1. Adrian Peterson 1. Ray Rice
2. Arian Foster 2. LeSean McCoy
3. Doug Martin 3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Marshawn Lynch 4. Arian Foster
5. Alfred Morris 5. Michael Turner
Top Fantasy Scoring Wide Receivers
2012 2011
1. Calvin Johnson 1. Calvin Johnson
2. Brandon Marshall 2. Jordy Nelson
3. Dez Bryant 3. Wes Welker
4. A.J. Green 4. Victor Cruz
5 Demaryius Thomas 5. Larry Fitzgerald
So as you can see the running back and receiver positions are much more of a gamble then the quarterback position. These guys using this philosophy are the same guys that passed on a top quarterback late in the first or early in the 2nd and took McFadden or Mathews instead. I wonder how that worked out for them? Quarterbacks score the most points in standard leagues by far, so having one of the top 4-5 gives you a decided advantage in your league.
You have a much better chance of finding a running back or receiver in the later rounds that can sneak into the top scoring at their position then finding a quarterback to do the same. Sure We had Russell Wilson, RG3 and Luck last year but this rookie class will probably not even give us a starter. In the majority of the leagues I have been in, the winner has had a top quarterback and that's a trend I don't see changing anytime soon. Joe Flacco might win in real life, but if he is your quarterback in a fantasy league, your in for a long season.
The late round quarterback approach might work if everything goes right with the other players you draft, but how often does that happen? Sure you could have a magical year where you have 3 or 4 sleepers end up as studs, and none of your running back or receivers get hurt. There are also Leprechauns with pots of gold and Barry Bonds never took steroids. If your a gambling man then draft a quarterback late, but its a move you will regret.
If you miss out on the top 4 or 5 running backs then why not draft one of the top quarterbacks and take McCoy, Chris Johnson or Maurice Jones-Drew in the 2nd. I would rather have Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy rather then Joe Flacco and Marshawn Lynch. The running backs and receivers are deeper then people think, so I say take that quarterback early and reap the benefits. I hope I have swayed some of the people debating on taking a quarterback late, but I will definitely not be showing this article to owners in my leagues. I look forward to the comments and hope everyone is having a good off season.
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