Despite the fact that two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC are about to square off for the interim welterweight championship, it seems like the only thing the media wants to know about is Georges St-Pierre. Have we let the emotion of a potential Nick Diaz versus GSP fight overshadow the fight that we have right in front of us?
When Carlos Condit was awarded the title shot against St-Pierre because of Diaz failure to show up at two press event, there was no way he could have seen the barrage of changes and shuffles that were coming.
First it was BJ Penn, then GSP for the title, then a date change with GSP, then Josh Koscheck, and now tonight at UFC 143 Condit will face Nick Diaz for the interim UFC welterweight championship. All the while, Condit has remained professional and patient.
Finally the road has brought these two fighters to the Mandalay Bay Event Center in Las Vegas. How does this fight breakdown?
When you talk about Nick Diaz the first two things that come up are his relentless pace and the volume of strikes he throws. He is a guy that is willing to take one shot in order to deliver three. Not only is his striking overwhelming but he is also a black belt in jiu jitsu under Caesar Gracie.
Diaz has not lost a fight since 2007. He has won 11 fights in a row with the most notable win during that time was his most recent victory over BJ Penn. Diaz stopped his opponents in 9 of those 11 wins.
On the other side of the cage Carlos Condit has clawed his way to title contention with a 4 fight win streak that includes 1 TKO and 2 KO victories. Condit is a fighter that moves forward and is not afraid to mix it up. He has solid stand up and is a five tool striker. Condit is also one of the better strikers from his back and is always busy on the ground.
Condit has won 12 of his last 13 fights and has finishes in 11 of those 12 victories.
If there is any fight to be excited about, it is this one. Styles make fights and these two fighters have fan friendly styles. There is no doubt that this could be an early candidate for fight of the year.
For Diaz to be successful against Condit he has to use his lateral speed advantage and footwork to create angles with his striking which he already does well anyway. The difference is that he will need to tighten up his technique with Condit. This will be a case where Diaz will have to out work Condit in the striking department keeping Condit uncomfortable and moving backwards.
The volume of strikes will be the difference for Diaz. He cannot let Condit become comfortable.
For Condit, he will need to use every tool he has and not get caught in a boxing match. Condit needs to use his kicks to keep Diaz at a distance. He will need to find a way to score straight up the middle as Diaz tends to throw looping strikes that expose the middle of his guard. We saw BJ Penn find some success up the middle in his fight with Diaz.
Two things that have hindered Condit in the past are his slow footwork and his lack of consistent head movement. He will need to use good footwork along with his kicks to keep Diaz from pressing forward.
This is an incredibly hard fight to call.
However, unless Condit is able to keep Diaz at a distance that allows him to technically pick him apart, Diaz will likely press forward and try to force Condit’s back against the cage not allowing him to circle and score with his boxing.
Make no mistake about it; Condit has the tools to out-score Diaz. The turning point will be who is able to control the fight. Will Condit be able to move forward and keep Diaz from moving advancing or will Diaz be able to back Condit down against the cage and keep him on the defensive?
Unless Condit is able to stop Diaz he will likely lose a decision. Look for this fight to be an exciting fight that lasts twenty-five minutes with Diaz pulling a closer than expected decision victory.
UFC 143 airs live on PPV tonight at 9 PM CST.
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