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Developments in Western Pacific to have major impacts for New Jersey

The path of Typhoon Neoguri will have a profound impact on pattern in North America
The path of Typhoon Neoguri will have a profound impact on pattern in North America

In chaos theory there is part of a theory that states that if a butterfly flaps it's wings in China that a storm will resort on the other side of the Earth. While obviously the atmosphere is not THAT volatile, the overall theme of this theory is true. What happens in other parts of the world can and does have a major impact on the weather that can evolve for New Jersey a few days, weeks, and even months later.

A perfect example of this is what is happening in the western Pacific now. A powerful typhoon, Neoguri, has developed to the southeast of Japan and is expected to curve and hit Japan before moving back out over the northern Pacific. This typhoon, which is the same as a hurricane, by the way, has winds of 130 mph sustained and gusts over 160 mph. This would be considered a category four hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. In other words, this is one bad storm and a large one at that. So why should the powerful typhoon that is targeting Japan be a concern for us in New Jersey? Great question! Here is the answer!

In meteorology, we have a tool that forecasters use called teleconnections. Basically, after years of studying the atmosphere, there are specific triggers that show up in the atmosphere that leads to other events in the atmosphere at different areas of the globe. For example, the development and strength of El Nino in the tropical Pacific has an influence on the weather pattern for North America for months. Sometimes though there are specific weather events in the medium terms, in the day to week time frame, that also has a profound impact on weather in North America and specifically in New Jersey.

In this case, the typhoon is expected to lift through Japan and into the northern Pacific. This introduction of tropical moisture and latent heat via thunderstorm development leads to a significant amplification of the Polar jet stream. The amplification of the Polar jet stream leads to a powerful trough in the northern Pacific around the Aleutian Islands. As a result, a ridge builds over western North America and a trough deepens over eastern North America. In this case, the amplification combined with other factors in the atmosphere like a warmer stratosphere and a warm northeastern Pacific Ocean can lead to the transport of a rather vigorous Polar air mass into eastern Canada and the United States from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid Atlantic.

As you can see, this type of development leaves open the possibility of July turning rather cool and unsettled once again, especially after this coming week. The influences of such a pattern change can last for several weeks depending on how much heat and moisture is transported northward by Typhoon Neoguri. The evolution of this powerful typhoon will be key in determining what to expect for the second half of July. If you like a hot and humid July, the track of Neoguri will potentially make you rather unhappy.