Horse racing is a tough game, any seasoned handicapper will tell you that an evenly matched six horse field can be overwhelming, which makes the Kentucky Derby an absolute nightmare to handicap and bet. With no less than 20 horses entered to run at a distance that is new for all entrants, its almost a miracle if the final results reflect anything other than pure chaos. With those odds stacked against you, it's absurd to think of throwing your money into any type of future pool. That is until you stop and think about it for a second.
There are three future pools in the course of the prep season leading up to the 'run for the roses'. The first one in January is so far outside of the solar system, you might as well be betting on Kucinich 2016. The second one in February begins to show some semblance of form, but still, if your betting with anything other than pocket change you may have a problem. The third one however is where things get interesting, in that it's close to the derby, yet far enough away that you may be getting somewhere in the neighborhood of fair value for your opinions.
Granted with this years new point system it may be tougher to have a feel for who has really qualified until all the major preps have been run, but with gambling comes risk and with risk comes reward. And with a twenty horse field, even if you just like the favorite, is 2-1 really fair value? Probably not. So why not get at least 7-2 or better on the chalk.
If played right, a good strategy can set you up with some wagering leverage on Derby day. For example, on a regular race day, the daily doubles (betting the winner of two races in a row) can come back somewhere on average between 7/15-1 odds. With pool 3, you can play some straight up win bets on some very logical horses and get those same daily double returns. Then on the first weekend in May, you have the option of taking the Kentucky Oaks (run that Friday), The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, (or both) and hooking your picks up in a daily double, compounding on your already nice odds from the future pool. The whole idea here is to maximize as much return on investment as possible, so you don't need to risk as much money.
In addition to win bets, you can also make exacta bets. Once again you are going to be getting a great return on those, although you're really getting into deep waters to confidently bet the first two finishers this far out. The best way here is to hookup one of your strong opinions on top with all, (which includes the "all other three year old picks") as a bonus for your return on a win bet. Another suggestion may be to toss anything under 20-1 and play only the longest shots with the 'all others' button.
There are many options here to tinker with, the general idea here is to utilize the square prices that you will not get on the day of the race. The final futures pool starts this Friday, and betting will close at 6:30 this Sunday, March 24th.
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