Today's Gallup poll shows President Barack Obama's approval rating at 48 percent while 46 percent disapprove. Disapproval of Congress stands at 83 percent to 13 percent approval, according to a Gallup poll as of two days ago. At a time when voters appear to be heavily disapproving of government, and institutions of government in general, the president seems to lead Congress consistently by maintaining approval and support from about half the voters. That seems consistent with his 51 percent winning majority from last winter.
Conventional wisdom, based on history, says the party that controls the White House will lose seats in a midterm election. Many believe the Democrats are more able to turn out their voters in presidential elections than midterm Congressional elections and point to this as factor favoring Republican keeping control of Congress in 2014.
The 2012 exit polls show the electorate was made up of 38 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents and other voters. The Democratic Party, and especially the president's supporters through Organizing for Action, are strongly focusing on the goal of increasing turnout for 2014 and helping Democrats regain control of Congress. At the same time, we are not seeing the degree of enthusiasm and organizing of the Tea Party movement like we saw 4 years ago at this time.
Turnout is always lower, in general, in midterm elections compared to elections held during presidential years. It would not be surprising to see significantly low turnout among the bases of both parties, and the actual electorate in 2014 to be made up of approximately four or five percent more Democrats than Republicans. This would be bad news for Republicans, who rode an even partisan mix of Democrats to Republicans in the 2010 midterm election to regain control of Congress and win a majority of governorships.
Democrats might regain a majority of those state governorships next year while retaining control of the United States Senate and making gains in the Congress. The recruiting of candidates to challenge incumbent Republican members of Congress, and the degree Democrats are effective in getting their voters to the polls next year will determine whether they can take control of Congress.
If the Tea Party movement is energized 18 months from now, that could very well help the Republicans keep their majority in Congress.
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