An elongated stationary frontal system was stretches in an arc from West Virginia through northern New York and into northern Vermont and New Hampshire this morning. This frontal system is forecast to decay through the day today, allowing a lackluster ridge of high pressure to begin the process of building into the region later this afternoon. Though the day will start cloudy, those clouds should slowly decrease through the day today, allowing partly cloudy conditions by sunset, and a chilly night overnight tonight.
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing fair skies and seasonable temperatures to the region. A warm front, tied to low pressure over the Great Lakes, will lift northward and through our region overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Temperatures should be marginally cold enough for perhaps some light freezing precipitation at the onset, however, warmer air to the south looks to rapidly invade the area through the late night hours, thus changing any frozen precipitation back to liquid rain for the morning commute on Thursday.
An unsettled weather pattern evolves into the coming weekend, as a cold front passes through the region Thursday night and Friday morning, and stalls to our southeast as waves of low pressure form along it. It does look as if we may have a few residual showers of rain and/or snow to start the weekend, with a brief break as high pressure builds in to close out the weekend with below normal temperatures.
The new work week next week may start out on the messy side, as a coastal storm looks to develop and merges with an inland storm over the Great Lakes. This could bring a hazardous mx of wintry precipitation to the region. Details on this potential will be explored, and refined, in future forecasts.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Morning clouds and areas of patchy fog giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine during the afternoon. High in the lower 40’s. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low in the upper 20’s. Light northwest winds.
Wednesday: Partly sunny to start, with increasing clouds late in the day. High in the lower 40’s. Variable winds 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low in the mid 30’s. Temperatures may rise a few degrees after midnight. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Thursday: Overcast and unseasonably mild, with periods of light rain and/or showers. High near 50. South winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Friday: Overcast with a 50 percent chance of rain and/or showers. High near 40 and low near 30.
Saturday: Overcast with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 35 and low near 20.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of a scattered snow shower. High near 35 and low near 25.
Monday: Overcast with a 40 percent chance of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. High near 32 and low near 25.