Dateline NBC: the George Smith disappearance update

Having now seen the George Smith "update" on Dateline NBC last night, I came away from the broadcast wondering, "what did we learn that was new?".

George Smith and his new wife Jennifer Hagel-Smith, were on their honeymoon cruise in the Mediterranean in the summer of 2005. They were sailing on Royal Caribbean's 'Brilliance of the Seas', when George disappeared. The only evidence was a bizarre cast of characters, and a large blood stain below the couple's room balcony. This was investigated by Turkish authorities, and the FBI. To this date, the FBI has never stated publicly whether they think it was an accidental fall overboard, or a murder.

Last night's Dateline promised to give new evidence that would help shed new light on this mystery. The bottom line - accident or murder? We may never know for sure, but at least we now have more facts.

Dateline didn't present a lot of NEW evidence last night. But, the program was important for two reasons. 1) It provided a thorough look back at the events from 2005 and subsequent events since then, and 2) It provided actual time stamp proof (through Royal Caribbean's room key system) of a time line of how events took place the night and morning of George Smith's disappearance.

If you missed the George Smith update episode of Dateline last night, it is available for online viewing. You may want to watch it before you read the following, because what I write will contain spoilers. It is an excellent piece to teach you about the case, or to refresh your thoughts on it.

The now proven timeline is very similar to those from this case that I've seen in the past. What follows is reiterated by facts gained from the show, and the analysis. Times in bold were reported by Dateline. A few items have been filled in from other sources.

Timeline from the night of George Smith's disappearance:

1:06 AM - Last known photo of George Smith, shown walking through the casino with Josh Askin. (Askin is a California man who befriended the couple while on the cruise)
2:00 AM (approximate) George and Jennifer join a group in the disco. Casino manager Lloyd Botha joins them. Josh Askins says in the elevator Lloyd was flirting with Jennifer, had his arm around her. At the casino, George gets a table with Josh Askin and the three Russians. (The Russians are actually American citizens whose families immigrated from Russia. There are two brothers, a cousin and a friend in the group) Jennifer and George get into an argument and Josh Askins says Jennifer leaves the disco with Lloyd Botha. (Not reported on this program: Witnesses from that night say that the argument between Jennifer and George was physical, with Jennifer kneeing him in the groin before leaving. She adamently denies this, but also claims she remembers nothing from that night.) Also, it is reported that Lloyd Botha took an FBI polygraph during the investigation and was eliminated as a suspect. Both George and Jennifer are reported as "stumbling drunk" as of this time, and her claim stands that she remembers nothing.
3:25 AM - Casino manager Botha rejoins his girlfriend in his cabin.
3:52 AM - George enters his cabin with the Russians and Josh. He and the group leaves shortly after to look for Jennifer. They make enough noise to awaken Clete Hyman, who is in the next cabin with his family. (Hyman is an American law enforcement officer who is on vacation)
4:01 AM - George reenters cabin with the Russians and Josh. The Russians procede to put him to bed while Josh Askins uses the cabin restroom. Couple in the cabin on the other side, Pat & Greg Lawyer also begin to hear talking. The phrase "Calm down, settle down George" is used. Clete Hyman says you can hear a voice saying "Goodnight" over and over and you could follow it through the cabin to the door.
4:15 AM - Clete Hyman looks out door and sees three individuals leaving George's cabin. (Time reported in previous investigations, not on Dateline) Four individuals had gone in. Josh Askin's lawyer says all four left and Hyman missed one of them. Soon, Hyman says he heard a single male voice talking in a conversational mode. There is no response from another. He then says he heard what sounded like "furniture moving" and "cabinet doors opening and closing, like maybe things were being put away or that they were looking for something". Then silence.
4:15 AM - The Russians and Josh Askin all claim to have gone to one of their cabins where they ordered a tremendous amount of food from room service. Each side vouches that all four were there and they took pictures of the amount of food they'd received. (In a statement the following day to investigators, Rosenberg fails to mention any room service or party.)
4:30 AM - Three minutes after the silence begins, Clete Hyman hears the "horrific thud" he talks about on Dateline. (Time reported by Hyman and the Lawyer's on other sources, not given on Dateline.) No report is made of anyone leaving the cabin after that. (Not reported on Dateline is that sometime around 4:30, ship's security opens the door to George Smith's cabin after a noise complaint by Clete Hyman. Pat Lawyer, in the cabin on the other side, speaks to them, but when security finds no one in the cabin, they leave.)
4:30 AM - Jennifer Hagel-Smith found passed out in a hallway alcove by ship's staff. (Time reported from other sources)
4:57 AM - Jennifer delivered to cabin by ship's staff. George is not there.
5:15 AM - Josh Askin enters his cabin.
7:00 AM (approximate) - Emillie Rausch (a 16 year old tourist in a cabin two floors below the Smith's) snaps picture of the stain on the life boat canopy. Describes it as "a red blood stain", but says she didn't think it was blood at first. Other passengers notice the stain and ship's authorities are notified. They begin a search of cabins above the stain area, and discover the cabin of George & Jennifer Smith is empty. The couple is paged over the ship's intercom. Josh Askin's attorney says his client told ship personnel that 'George had a lot to drink last night and might not hear the page'. (Other sources put this picture at 8:30, but this is unlikely.)
After blood picture is made - Jennifer Hagel-Smith is found in the ship's spa. The couple has a "couples massage" scheduled for that morning. She is reportedly an hour and a half early and shows up shortly after the blood is sighted and the search begins. This is less than four hours after she was put to bed drunk by ship's crew. She is wearing clothes seen in security video the night before and has no signs of blood on her. She says that George wasn't in the cabin when she woke up, and she assumed he was "sleeping it off" in a friend's stateroom. She is taken to an interview room where she is joined by Josh Askins. She tells him she remembers nothing from the previous night.
Approximately 8:50 AM - Cabin is sealed. (Not reported on Dateline.)
Time not given. George's parents are called and told he is missing. Although they aren't told this, ship's personnel already consider him lost at sea.
Early theory is devised that George perched on his balcony to smoke a cigar, lost his balance and fell to the canopy below.

Facts derived from the show

Dateline shows photographs taken by Royal Caribbean employees before Turkish authorities investigate the cabin. According to Dateline and the Smiths' attorney, two spots of "blood" are shown. The two spots appear to be not much larger than the tip of a cotton swab.
No appearance of foul play was found in the cabin by Turkish authorities.
The life boat canopy was cleaned of the red stain before the ship sailed for Greece.
Three days after this incident, Josh Askin's attorney says the Russians were accused of rape by a female passenger. He does not mention Josh in this. The Russians claim that the sex is consensual (they video taped it). Royal Caribbean kicks the Russians, Josh Askin and their families off the ship in Naples, Italy.
In a Turkish authority interview, Josh Askin proclaims that Jennifer is innocent and that they (the authorities) need to talk to Lloyd Botha (the casino manager) whom Josh accuses of inappropriate contact with Jennifer. He is adamant.
Upon returning to the US, the Russians and Josh Askin are contacted by the FBI. According to his attorney, Askin has had to polygraph tests administered. The lawyer says he passed one that he set up. He also says the FBI "turns up the heat" and tells Askin that he failed one they administered.
Jennifer Hagel-Smith is given a polygraph test and passes.
In a 2009 deposition for a lawsuit of the family about George's estate, Josh Askin "pled the fifth" on every question, even including those as simple as 'whether or not he was on the cruise'. (His attorney says this was at his instruction because of pressure from the FBI and the fear that he didn't want him to make a mistake they could utilize.)
The Smith family attorney claims that Josh Askin's attorney told him that Greg Rosenberg (one of 'the Russians') left the room service party while it was in progress, and needs to be looked at. By this time Greg Rosenberg was in prison in Florida for trafficking.
Royal Caribbean records show that no room service was delivered during the time that the four young men claimed to have their feast. RCL shows that calls were made from their cabin, but no food was order nor delivered. Askin's attorney believes the records have been changed.
The FBI's Russian organized crime unit is now involved.

Analysis

Dateline doesn't say that there is any evidence that proves the two small stains shown in the cabin picture was blood. If it was, the size of the two drops hardly looked like the beginning of a murder scene.
You have to think the large amount of blood on the canopy was caused by impact. If there was trauma causing foul play in the cabin, there would have been evidence of such. This doesn't rule out foul play. George Smith could still have been unconscious and thrown off the balcony, or could have been pushed off of it.
The distance fallen was two floors. The amount of blood on the canopy would lead you to think that George Smith might have been lying on the canopy for a bit before falling overboard. This would be reiterated by the bloody hand print shown at the end of the program.
Clete Hyman saw three figures leave the room at 4:15. One of two things happened at this critical point. Four people left the room and Hyman didn't see but three, or three people left the room leaving a fourth behind. (More about that later)
After Hyman saw the figures leave, only one voice was heard from George Smith's stateroom, and this was when the banging of the cabinets noise was heard.
What about the cash? George Smith had bragged he had a large amount of money on board. He seemed to tell different people different amounts, up to $50,000 from one report. It was money he claimed to have received as a wedding present. Dateline mentions nothing about any theft of cash, and this has never been mentioned anywhere before. Plus, even in 2005, most cruise ships had in room safes, so banging about looking for a hidden stash of money would have been unnecessary.
The Russians and Josh Askin claim that they had a room service feast immediately after leaving George Smith's room. They even took pictures of the food because there was so much. Detailed records from Royal Caribbean do not indicate that any food was delivered or even ordered by them that night. If these pictures exist, are they from another time, and if so, why the story about the room service feast? And if this feast took place, with mountains of food involved, then why when interviewed by Dateline, did Rosenberg mention only that they had 'tuna fish sandwiches'?
Why was Greg Rosenberg only targeted four years after this incident fact and when he was in prison for a drug related offense?
The Fifth Amendment is a powerful tool in our legal system. But when you claim it on a question that everyone knows the answer to (such as 'were you on the ship during that cruise?'), it DOES put you in a rather suspicious light.

As a side, in 2008, Jennifer Hagel-Smith told Fox News that on the night of his disappearance, her husband mixed prescription drugs with alcohol, something his doctor had warned him about. (Read here) She didn't claim that this would have caused his death, but said it could have caused his condition to be conducive for an accident to happen.

So what happened on the night of July 5, 2005 in the Med?

Did George Smith accidentally fall from his balcony and land on the life boat canopy below?

Did he lay injured and bleeding for a bit before eventually falling overboard, leaving behind the red stain on the canopy, and a bloody handprint as he lost his grip? (The canopy was somewhat flat, so it is not out of the question that he could have gotten confused in his altered state, especially after the fall, and in moving about gone the wrong way and off the side) If so, case closed.

Was George Smith murdered in a robbery attempt by someone he thought to be a friend? Look at the scenarios:

The time line for Greg Rosenberg circling back doesn't add up. If all four left at 4:15 and went to this room service feast, waited for food to be delivered and then Rosenberg came back to Smith's cabin, there just wasn't enough time. You have fifteen minutes between the time they left and the sound at 4:30. After a very noisy night, no one reports hearing anyone coming back to Smith's cabin after the group left, and nobody reports hearing anyone leave after the 4:30 'thud' sound.
Did three of them leave, and one remain behind? And if so, did all four know what was going to happen and they agreed to a common alibi? Or could one of them have remained behind, ended up committing a horrible deed, then convinced the others that they would be implicated too, so they all four needed an alibi which they subsequently concocted.

One other possibility - Could it be that on the morning after George Smith disappeared off the ship, as rumors became rampant and the story of the blood stain spread through the staff and crew, that a group of people, who actually had nothing to do with the disappearance, panicked? Knowing they'd be the target of an investigation and knowing there would be safety in numbers, they formulated a plan. An alibi that they didn't need. A late night room service feast that never happened? That wasn't even mentioned until later in the process? That was substantiated by pictures from another time?

We may never know.

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