Dancing with the Stars 2011: Who's the favorite this season?

Could a Playboy bunny and former Hugh Hefner girlfriend win season 12 of "Dancing with the Stars"? Even after last season's surprise contender, Bristol Palin, showed the power of conservative American voters? Former Hefner girlfriend Wilkinson, former Karate Kid Ralph Macchio, current Pittsburgh Steeler Hines Ward, Disney star Chelsea Kane and former boxing champion Sugar Ray Leonard are among those favored to win by different websites.

Jennifer Grey and her partner Derek Hough eventually won season 11, but it was a close race with Palin and her partner Mark Ballas boosted by votes and not necessarily their scores. Disney star Kyle Massey and his partner Lacey Schwimmer finished second.

This season, the website lasvegassportsbetting.com has Kendra Wilkinson as the 7/2 favorite.

Kendra Wilkinson: 7/2
Ralph Macchio and Hines Ward: 11/2
Chelsea Kane and Sugar Ray Leonard: 6/1
Mike Catherwood: 15/2
Lil' Romeo: 8/1
Chris Jericho and Kirstie Alley: 10/1
Wendy Williams: 12/1
Petra Nemcova: 18/1

Wilkinson may have the same problem that face Pam Anderson and Joanna Krupa: her lifestyle choices and association with the Playboy logo may work against her.

Just why does Macchio have the same odds as Ward? At 49, Macchio is younger than the two oldest winners: (Donny Osmond at 51 and Jennifer Grey at 50), but both Osmond and Grey had stage entertainment experience. Grey had been one of the dancers selected to be in "Dirty Dancing" and Osmond had performed on stage in musicals and musical concerts. Grey also has an impressive lineage: Her father won an Oscar and a Tony Award for the same role in a major Broaday musical that went on to become an award-winning movie, "Cabaret."

Another website, Cleveland.com favored Chelsea Kane at 3 to 1. That was based on her likeability. Kids like her. Older people like her. She's been dancing on the Disney channel and primed for success. She can also get some tips from Kyle Massey who is a Disney star and they both work on the animation series: "Fish Hooks."

Chelsea Kane (loved by all): 3/1
Lil Romeo (good looks and clean image mean bad news for the competition: 5/1
Sugar Ray Leonard (personality and boxer ability) and Hines Ward (football players do well on DWTS): 6/1
Petra Nemcova (can a model dance?): 7/1
Mike Catherwood (unknown): 8/1
Kendra Wilkinson (cleavage will work against her): 10/1
Ralph Macchio (forgotten actor off by week 3): 12/1
Wendy Wilkinson (too full-time jobs on two coasts means out by week 4): 15/1
Chris Jericho (non-athlete posing as an athlete): 18/1
Kirstie Alley (trainwreck): 20/1

Also favoring clean-cut Disney star Chelsea Kane was Docsports.com but the writer has some facts wrong. According Christopher G. Shepard who is writing for that website, Hines Ward isn't likely to win because Kym Johnson has never won in nine seasons?! Someone needs to call Donny Osmond. Johnson and Osmond won during season nine. Before that Johnson also won during season 2 of the Australian version of "Dancing with the Stars." Her partner was TV presenter Tom Williams. That win is often credited with her coming to joine the U.S. version of the series.

Before her win with Osmond, Johnson finished second during season 4 with N'Sync member Joey Fatone. Remember the "Star Wars" tango? She also finished second with former NFL player Warren Sapp during season seven.

Shepard also favors Chris Jericho because he's paired with two time-champion Cheryl Burke and would have given them +500 odds.

I guess he doesn't think that Louis van Amstel has it in him despite doing well with Kelly Osbourne (that team finished third).

Just how tall is Petra Nemcova? Dmitry Chaplin is six-foot-one. Wikipedia lists Nemcova as being five-foot-eleven. Nemcova is probably taller than Chaplin if she wears really high heels.

Wendy Williams is listed as five-foot-eleven. Dovolani is listed as six-foot-one.

Chelsea Kane (has chemistry with partner and two-time champion Mark Ballas) and Hines Ward: +400
Ralph Macchio( has the eighties nostalgia vote like Jennifer Grey): +450
Kendra Wilkinson (voted off early because partner Louis van Amstel has never won): +500
Sugar Ray Leonard (shorter than his partner Anna Trebunskaya, but should get the footwork): +550
Kirstie Alley (go deep, but not win): +700
Chris Jericho (paired with Cheryl Burke and likely to make noise): +900
Lil Romeo (can he dance) and Wendy Williams (a size problem with Williams dwarfing Tony Dovolani) : +1000
Petra Nemcova (Is too tall for her partner Dmitry Chaplin): +1200
Mike Catherwood (another dud partner for Lacey Schwimmer): +1800

Shepard's odds come from BetUs and he has the top three finalists as:

Chelsea Kane
Sugar Ray Leonard
Chris Jericho

Favored to win is Sugar Ray Leonard. Leonard may have been a boxer, but if he did win, he'd be the oldest winner at 54.

Last season we were pleasantly surprised by Kyle Massey. Part of what we like about "Dancing with the Stars" is seeing who really can dance and entertain. Do you bet on horses before you see them run? We don't bet at all, but we'd like to see some dancing before we pick who our favorites are.

UPDATE (22 March 2011):

Ralph Macchio/Karina Smiroff are in first (24).

Kirstie Alley and Maksim Chmerkovskiy are in second (23).

Foxtrot

*Click below to go to individual dance performances*

Ralph Macchio and Karina Smirnoff: 24 (8, 8, 8) to "Ain't that a Kick in the Head" by Dean Martin.

Chelsea Kane and Mark Ballas: 21 (7, 7, 7) to "King of Anything" by Sara Bareilles

Petra Nemcova and Dmitry Chaplin: 18 (6, 6, 6) to "Don't Know Why" by Norah Jones

Sugar Ray Leonard and Anna Trebunskaya: 17 (6, 5, 6) to "The Power of Love" by Huey Lewis and the News

Mike Catherwood and Lacey Schwimmer : 13 (5, 4, 4) to "Cooler Than Me" by Mike Posner

Cha cha cha

*Click below to go to individual dance performances*