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Crisis diplomacy: Predictive management required

Accurately anticipating and preparing for global crises is something that foreign ministers must address with their governments. It happens under direction from nations' top leaders.

Russians command Crimea

In the United States, we expect that the State Department and National Security organizations will accomplish the following outcomes:

  1. Accurately anticipate and prepare for global crises
  2. Mitigate and avert global crises
  3. Respond to global crises with an appropriate and effective response
  4. Mitigate and avert global crises
  5. Collaborate with allies and allied organizations to implement mutual defense treaty obligations

How well are the Department of State, Department of Defense, and National Security organizations performing?

For this analyst, they are in a constant state of catch-up. They are terrible at anticipation. They are terrible at planning. Cooperation and collaboration with allies not productive in averting crises and untimely in addressing them. Often, the outcomes are wholly ineffective.

Muddling through foreign policy is what describes the Obama administration as it muddles through everything. Part of the problem stems from Congress, but 2/3rd of the responsibility is with the President.

The EU wants to mitigate and to act to avert head to head conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. That is possible only because the Ukraine military lacks leadership and resolve. Many of the troops in Crimea are as loyal to the insurgents as they are to their own government. That is problematic.

To what government do Crimeans want to belong? Ukraine or Russia. Let them vote to see where the population stands. That means Russians must withdraw to let that process work.

“UPDATE 2-EU to urge mediation with Russia over Ukraine
Mon Mar 3, 2014 5:30pm IST

* EU foreign ministers meet to discuss situation in Ukraine

* Emergency gathering to weigh response to Russia's seizure of Crimea

* Diplomats do not expect move on sanctions; mediation to be emphasised

* Germany, France, Finland promoting OSCE negotiation effort

By Justyna Pawlak and Luke Baker

BRUSSELS, March 3 (Reuters) - European Union foreign ministers will push on Monday for high-level mediation to resolve the crisis over Russia's invasion of Crimea, while threatening the possibility of sanctions if Russia does not back down.

In emergency talks convened after Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the Crimean peninsula and said he had the right to invade Ukraine, ministers will try to strike a balance between pressure on Moscow and finding a way to calm the situation.

Germany, France and Britain, the EU's most-powerful nations, are all advocating mediation to resolve the crisis, possibly via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, while not ruling out economic measures if Moscow does not cooperate.”

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