If the White Sox choose to add a middle-of-the-order hitter this winter, chances are, it's going to be via a trade. While there's a good chance that player could be an outfielder (to push Carlos Quentin to DH), there's also a good chance that player is a first baseman, whether to supplant a departing Paul Konerko or work as a first base/DH tandem with a re-signed Konerko.
And the player whose name inevitably will pop up in any first base scenario is Prince Fielder.
The White Sox were after Fielder earlier this year, making a push for him in late July before finding out the asking price involved Gordon Beckham. The Brewers are almost certain to make Fielder available in the coming weeks, so the White Sox likely will inquire about making a deal.
The Brewers' price still may be Beckham. If it is, the Sox won't get a deal done.
But what if the asking price is Edwin Jackson?
Jackson makes sense. Like Fielder, his contract is up after 2011. The Brewers need pitching, the White Sox need hitting. Jackson had a 3.8 WAR in 2011, Fielder 4.1.
It's not all perfect, though. Any desire the Brewers have in Jackson would be predicated on an organizational belief that the team can win in 2011, leading them to spurn prospect-laden offers in favor of one centered around a one-year pitching rental.
But a 1-2 punch of Yovani Gallardo and Jackson—assuming whatever improvements/tweaks he made with the White Sox stay with him in 2011—has to be a tantalizing idea for the Brewers, right? Add in that they may shop Casey McGehee for a starter, and all of a sudden, Milwaukee could end up with a very competitive rotation in the mediocre-to-weak NL Central.
Obviously, Fielder would be a major asset to the White Sox—he'd be that left-handed bat the team longed for after letting Jim Thome head to Minnesota. A 3-4-5 of Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, and Paul Konerko sounds pretty good, doesn't it?
But money is an issue, too. Fielder's in line to make about $15 million in arbitration this winter, while Jackson is set to make $8.35 million in 2011. And given that the White Sox may have to be the team to kick in a prospect (Eduardo Escobar?) to get a deal done regardless of money, that could throw a wrench in this idea.
Dealing away Jackson wouldn't be too big an issue, especially if the White Sox still had ample opportunity to pick up a mid-level starter on the free agent market. Or, the Sox could throw Chris Sale into the rotation, but that would raise a few problems that I discussed yesterday, mainly involving Jake Peavy's detached lat muscle.
But, again, if the Brewers and White Sox are serious about winning in 2011, this idea makes a little bit of sense. Take this proposal:
Brewers get
White Sox get
-
Prince Fielder
- $3 million cash
- Re-sign Freddy Garcia to one-year, $3 million deal (or sign some other starter for $3 million)
First of all, are the Brewers willing to make this trade? If yes, should the White Sox make it? Would the loss of Jackson hurt the Sox more than the addition of Fielder? Are Escobar and Gilmore too high or too low a prospect price to pay in exchange for $3 million in salary relief?
What do you think?
Update, 12:35 PM: After discussions with some of you guys on twitter, I feel like I should add some stuff to this idea.
First, this deal does look lopsided in favor of the White Sox. But the sell in the deal is on Jackson's 75 innings—small sample size alert—with the Sox in 2010. Jackson had a 3.17 FIP in 11 starts after coming to the White Sox, eight of which were quality starts. His strikeout rate went up and his walk rate went down.
It'd be easy to dismiss those 75 innings as a random occurrence, which they very well may be. But Don Cooper *does* have a pretty impressive track record, and when Cooper says he notices something to fix, usually, it gets fixed and that player goes on to have success.
We won't know for sure if that's what happened with Jackson until he gets a full season with these supposed-tweaks under his belt, but there does exist the possibility that Jackson pitches like an ace in 2011. That's what the Brewers would have to be sold on with this deal.
Secondly, could the Brewers get a significantly better offer for Fielder? Adrian Gonzalez being on the block—he's better and cheaper—means Fielder isn't the prize of the first base market. Secondly, teams in the market for a first baseman can turn to a deep free agent crop that includes Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, etc. to fill a hole at first base.
That's not saying a market won't develop for Fielder. He's an elite hitter, and obviously, there will be teams willing to take on his $15 or so million 2011 salary. But it's not going to be a robust market, and that's where this Jackson proposal comes into play.
Comments
This is a tough trade idea.
1. Trading Jackson decreases our pitching depth and right now we aren't certain Peavy can come back 100%.
2. Would you rather have Jackson + Derek Lee or Fielder? Jackson + Lee probably = Fielder from a salary standpoint. Having two different players (Lee + Jackson) decreases your risk.
3. Fielder is going into his free agent year (as is Jackson) so I'd bet all my chips he has a monster season.
4. Good pitching always trumps good hitting. That's why the Giants won the world series.
I'm not arguing either way, just making points from each perspective. I'd rather keep Jackson, sign Lee (or equivelant) and trade for that bat at the trade deadline. At that point we'll know more about what we'll need, the cost of players will have gone down and we'll know the status of Peavy. Plus, if we are on pace to make the playoffs, you would only use 3 or 4 of Peavy, Buehrle, Jackson, Floyd and Danks, so you don't need ALL of them.
"I'd rather keep Jackson, sign Lee (or equivelant) and trade for that bat at the trade deadline. "
OK, sounds great. But WHAT will the SOX trade away? And WHO will they get?
See, that's the same stupid line of reasoning that led KW & Ozzie to believe that starting 2010 with an incomplete team was a good idea. [DUH--- Let's use Mark Kotsay as a DH, DUH......]
I HATE the simple-minded idea that KW can just "trade for a bat," when there really isn't anything that other teams WANT in the farm system. Trade Jackson away YESTERDAY, and use the $8.5M in savings to sign Lee, Garcia, re-sign Putz, and a proper catcher is the better route, IMO.
That's an interesting point. If Jackson is a 3.5-win pitcher and Lee is a 1.5-win first baseman/DH, that's 5.0 wins right there. Fielder probably won't be a 5.5-win player, he's more likely to be in the 4.0 range as a first base/DH guy with Konerko, assuming he's brought back (if not, I'd still expect a 4.0-win range for Fielder). But somebody would have to replace Jackson, and if that's Freddy Garcia, let's put him down for one win. That would make the trade entirely equal just in terms of WAR.
With Jackson, the White Sox have insurance in case Mark Buehrle regresses or Jake Peavy can't go/isn't good. It also gives them a dominant 1-2-3 of Jackson-Floyd-Danks. By no means am I sold on trading Jackson—if the Sox make the playoffs, having the option to not even start Mark Buehrle until the ALCS would be a hell of a scenario—but then again, they're going to need more offense to make the playoffs.
Good points, striker.
Jackson has sucked a horse's ass his entire career. If you go back and look at his career numbers, you'll see that he's a fraud with no consistency to his performances. HIS ERA+ is below 100. His WHIP is crappy. I'd trade him for a bag of balls, and salary relief.
Tell us how you really feel about Edwin Jackson.
His career history is riddled with frustrating inconsistency, yes. But I'm willing to bet that he doesn't regress to his career averages in 2011 based on Don Cooper's presence. That it's a contract year hopefully will help keep him on the right track, too. Am I putting too much faith in Jackson? Maybe. But he's at least given me a reason to believe after all that previous mediocrity.
I'd love to think that Jackson can stay "fixed," due to Cooper. I WANT Edwin Jackson to be a good pitcher for this team. But look at Jackson's history. It's a conga line of good-bad, good-bad, good-bad.
He's also crapped out at four other teams who tried to "fix him" in the past. If he was going to be "fixed," wouldn't it have happened already?
Also, Cooper was only able to have a transient "fix" on Loiaza, and has had mixed results in "fixing" other pitchers, none of which are 4 team-rejects like Jackson. [Floyd and Thornton were only 1-team rejects before being "fixed" by Cooper.]
Since this team already has a lot of money invested in the starting rotation, and might have holes at 1st, catcher, right field, DH, and elsewhere, I don't like the idea of $8.5M being spent on a guy as inconsistent as Jackson has been. I would rather that KW wisely "sell high" on Jackson, and spend money on much more pressing needs.
Fair enough. I'd feel more comfortable dealing Jackson if the Sox had one or two minor league options that wouldn't be complete failures (given that, if Garcia replaces him, he shouldn't be counted on).
It's too bad the Sox are spending about the same amount of money on Mark Teahen and Scott Linebrink as Jackson...but, then again, Jerry Reinsdorf has been willing to increase the payroll beyond our expectations recently, so maybe money won't be as big a problem as we anticipate this offseason.
what a terrible deal for the brewers. they don't want a 1 year guy, their window is 2012-2015.
There is absolutely no way this deal would get done. Makes no sense for the Brewers. They won't compete next year. As a Brewer fan I would rather let Fielder walk as a free agent than trade him for Edwin Jackson.
Fair enough. I guess I'm thinking the NL Central will be weak and very winnable next year, especially if the Brewers have some good pitching.
Yeah that deal isn't getting done. If the Brewers are trying to compete just for this year they should retain Fielder and sign any starter they can to a 1- year deal. If they dump Fielder and McGahee in a seperate deal, their pitching might improve, but their offense would be horrible.
Beckham would need to be included with Jackson (who I doubt the Brewers would even want since he is an impending FA) in addition with another prospect.
If Beckham's included, no deal will get done. The only way Beckham gets traded is for a long-term investment, and Fielder won't be that given he's a Boras client.
So someone wants Beckham...who has a huge upside, is cheap for several more years and wont eat himself out of his uniform soon AND a solid #3 starting pitcher for one year of having Fielder?
Ummmm....Uhhhh....NO
No way this deal goes down! Why would the Brewers want a SS and 3rd basemen prospect. They want pitching! That's the bottom line! They want young arms that they have under their control for years to come, not some has been, never was.
I agree. The Brewers would want a top young pitching prospect under team control for years at cheaper salaries because they can't afford to sign a top free agent Cliff Lee type. They would rather hold on to Prince until the July trading deadline or just get the draft picks.
Both Escobar and Gilmore are years away from potentially being called up and wouldn't be the centerpiece of this proposed deal.
What a silly trade idea. Prince Fielder is a 26 year old slugger who has hit 50HR. Edwin Jackson is a slightly above average erratic starter on his 3rd team. The Brewers will get at least two high quality regulars with one for the rotation and two high level prospects. Frankly, unless the deal is Beckham and Jackson, the White Sox have little chance to get Fielder who is on his way to a Hall of Fame career.
You guys do realize Fielder and Jackson had similar WARs in 2010, right?
Very well written and good idea... Sox should trade Jackson now at peak value... despite what KW says, he never wanted him... got him to trade for Dunn before the Nats awful GM backed out... do this and do it fast.... then you have leverage with Konerko should he leave...
AJ returns, Konerko either comes back or goes out west...
this deal should never happen
the Brewers can get way more than Edwin Jackson for a guy who hit 50 HR and is going into a contract year
even if Jackson and Prince had similar WARs in 2010, Jackson had a career year last year while Prince had a down year last year
Prince Fielder's career season-by-season WAR: 1.3, 5.3, 2.7, 6.9, 4.1. He's averaged 3.5 WAR/600 plate appearances for his career. Yeah, he's hit 50 home runs, but he plays below-average defense.
Jackson did have a career year, yes, and a lot of his value is on being sold as a guy who can sustain that career performance. If you disagree, that's fine, you're probably being more reasonable than I am. But something about the way he pitched with the Sox tells me it wasn't a fluke.
You're an idiot. The deal "looks lopsided" for the Sox because it is. No sane GM would do this.
I'd really be curious how people would react to this idea if the names were removed. Edwin Jackson has a reputation for being frustratingly inconsistent, while Fielder has a reputation for being an immaculate offensive threat. While that's true, value-wise, Fielder is overrated.
No kidding, this is awful. FIrst of all, I didn't know they had the 2011 WAR out yet. Second, I haven't seen those values close to that at Baseball reference or Baseball prospectus for Jackson. Looking at a single season values is not very bright for a trade that would be as important as this. If you're going to look at WAR, at least look at a real sample size. In 6 seasons, Fielder has a WAR more than twice of Jackson (Baseball reference). It's also not fair to take into account the negative WAR due to his defense since playing as DH it doesn't matter.
Why would the Brewers trade for a mid (at best) to back of the rotation guy for 1 year? At 8 million next year, the Brewers could take on a much lower risk/high reward free agent and still have Prince during a contract year (Duscherer, Webb come to mind).
A 1-2 of Gallardo/Jackson is still only the 3rd best top end of the rotation in the NL Central, behind STL and CIN.
Again, my whole thing with this is predicated on the Brewers 1) wanting pitching and 2) not getting the return they expected in a saturated market. Obviously, that could mean keeping Fielder and taking the draft picks, and that would likely be the single biggest reason this idea would fall through in the real world.
I've admitted I may be a little too close to Jackson, stepping back objectively, you're right--one year punctuated by 75 great innings probably isn't enough to project Jackson to have a similar WAR to Fielder for 2011.
I also don't know much about the Sox's prospects, but I don't see the Brewers having a need for a poor fielding 3B with a low OBP in high A ball and a defensive SS when they already got one there for the next 5 years. Doesn't really sweeten the pot a whole lot more for the Crew to give up Fielder.
The Sox don't have much else to offer outside of Escobar in terms of prospects unless the Brewers think Jordan Danks is worthwhile for some odd reason. Maybe Tyler Flowers sweetens it, but he's a huge question mark as well. And Dayan Viciedo or Gordon Beckham won't go anywhere, same goes for Brent Morel in this scenario.
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