A large upper level low pressure system resided over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence this morning. This upper level system is forecast to cut itself off from the main upper level flow pattern and remain essentially stationary through the day today. Weak disturbances rotating around this large upper level system will keep the forecast shaded more toward intervals of clouds and sunshine today, as the strengthening March sun will likely cause the atmosphere to destabilize during the day leading to cloud production. Lake effect precipitation off of lakes Erie and Ontario, though it will be plentiful, looks to stay well north and west of the region.
A wedge of high pressure builds into the region later tonight and lasts through the bulk of the coming weekend. The upper level pattern looks to remain rather sluggish and slow as the upper level system mentioned in the opening paragraph continues to slowly lift northward. The difference in atmospheric pressure between the two systems (high pressure and low pressure) will keep a respectfully tight pressure gradient over the region during the end of the week and into the weekend. This will help bolster some breezy to windy conditions over the area. Temperatures should slowly begin an upward trend through the next couple days, though the breezy will likely keep it feeling cooler.
The Capital Region looks to receive a glancing blow from a storm forecast to form between the Delmarva Peninsula and the North Carolina coastline Monday. This storm is forecast to track well south of the region to open the new work week, and to be out into the open waters of the Atlantic early next week. Some light rain and/or snow showers on the northern edge of the precipitation shield associated with the storm look to be all the region may receive. We will continue to monitor the latest indications concerning this storm, as should it appear as if it will track further north or east, this could impact the total precipitation amounts received over the region.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A passing flurry is possible at times. High in the upper 30’s. West winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper teens. Light northwest winds.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Becoming breezy during the afternoon. High in the upper 30’s. West winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low in the mid 20’s. West winds 5-10 MPH.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High in the lower 40’s. Northwest winds 15-25 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High near 45 and low near 25.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a 30 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 45 and low near 30.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High near 45 and low near 30.