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Folks, sorry for the lack of updates, I have been on vacation the last couple of weeks, so it has been harder to find time. But I am back in the saddle so let’s get to it.
Raleigh Weather Discussion
Unfortunately, our wintry precip chances diminished over the weekend and hence my lack of updates. It appears that this week will likely pass with no significant wintry weather and we look to move into a warmer pattern next week.
The rain will diminish today. We will see a wave of precipitation move NE from the Gulf region later tonight and tomorrow, but all models keep the low levels dry and it appears we will mostly just see cloud cover overspread the region. I cannot rule out an isolated shower or even a shower mixed with sleet or snowflakes across the mountains, foothills, and piedmont late tonight and early tomorrow morning, but I certainly wouldn’t stay up for it because 95% of us will likely not see a drop.
We will see cool temperatures remain into the weekend with morning lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. I am watching an upper level disturbance which is actually the old cut off low in the Southwest we were watching last week to see what it would do. It was slow to move out and hence was one of the reasons our winter storm chances died. However, it will come out in a weakened form this weekend and could provide a cold rain on Sunday. Right now I have the forecast dry but that could chance. I looked at all the 6z GFS Ensemble members and even the wet ones looked warm enough for rain, so it looks like little chance for frozen precipitation.
A warm-up commences next week as most of the US goes above normal with a trough in the West/Rockies and a big ridge in the East. This will lead to our temperatures likely approaching the 60 degree mark. Once we hit Tuesday I expect a series of days with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The models do show a strong cold front approaching by next weekend, but they show it making limited progress as the ridge in the East slows it down and weakens it. I expect cold air will have a hard time making any substantial progress into the East/Southeast through at least 1/20 or so.
National Extended Weather Discussion
A cold weather pattern appears on tap for much of central and western Canada, as well as the US West, Rockies, and High Plains, This occurs as we see an amplification of ridging in the NE Pacific and into Alaska which helps carve out a deep trough across the western half of North America and a strong ridge across the eastern US where it appears a warmer than normal pattern is setting up for January.
It is becoming clear that my cold winter forecast for the eastern US is going to bust. December was one of the warmest December’s on record particularly from an energy perspective and January although getting off to a much cooler start is heading towards a warm pattern for the East by next week. It appears that the combo of a neutral ENSO, -PDO, and +AMO which is usually a warm one for the East may win this winter season. My flaw was thinking an El Nino was coming, despite the early fall data that it was in jeopardy, and also because of that thinking the PDO was going to rise to neutral. I am not throwing in the towel on any extended cold weather for the East just year, the MJO may reach the colder phases by late in January and February but the lack of an El Nino and the difficulty in getting cold air into the East even with the very negative AO in December are warning signs to abandon the ship of any cold winter forecast for the eastern US.
As mentioned earlier, it does look cold for the West/Plains but there is no evidence yet of a driver to get this into the eastern US. That may change in a few weeks but probably not before 1/20 or so.
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