Congressional health care gridlock will bankrupt U.S. before 2048

Protesters against President Barack Obama's health care plan cheer at a rally 
in Grand Junction, Colo. President Obama address health care at a town hall meeting
in Grand Junction later on August 15, 2009.
(AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)Insert photo caption or credit here

The cost of health care threatens to overtake the entire output of all U.S. goods and services in 40 years if Congress doesn’t agree to fundamental corrective action. A national bankruptcy must certainly occur sooner than 20 years.

Attendees at town hall meetings across the nation worry about the effect of health care reform on the federal debt. Growth of the debt is a legitimate concern and deserves to be addressed. Voters have been told only that the current rate of health care cost growth is unsustainable.

Unsatisfied with that general answer, many have asked for specifics. President Obama says “the health care cost curve must be bent downward.” He understates the challenge. The medium-term outlook without significant action is catastrophic.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has revised its report of average growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upward to 2.8 percent per year for the period 2000 to 2008. The World Bank estimates the U.S. 2008 GDP at $14.2 trillion.

The rate of growth for health care expense in America for roughly the same period was 7.5 percent according the Office of the Actuary inside the Department of Health and Human Services. America will spend around $2.5 trillion on health care in 2009 or 17.67 percent.

Do the math and project forward by the actual historical factors. Gross National Product and health care costs cross in 2048. Despite the projections, energy, food, clothing, defense, and other costs in addition to health care will force national bankruptcy long before health care costs outrun GDP.

So, why are majority politicians in such a hurry? American Presidents (all Democrats) repeatedly have proposed health care reform since 1945. By 1960, 5.2 percent of GDP was devoted to health care. Today the percentage has increased by 350 percent. The average expenditure per person has exploded from a $148.00 per year per year to $8300.00 per person this year.

Stakeholders have repeatedly beat back reform to protect their own interests. The few who profit from imbalances that have developed cannot be allowed to bankrupt the rest of us. Currently, 50 percent of all personal bankruptcies are the direct result of health care debt. It is time to finally confront the problem. The longer the wait, the more draconian will need to be the solutions.
 

As America searches for solutions leading to a reformation of its own health care system, knowing the successes and shortcomings of health care regimes in other developed nations will be essential in negotiating the most palatable and efficient design for all concerned. This series attempts to connect the dots and explode the talking points in hopes that the folks who actually have a vote might come to a conclusion.

Al Portner is a former daily newspaper editor and publisher in seven states and author of the forthcoming “Mark Twain and the Tale of Grant’s Memoir.” Portner is also the proprietor of The Assignment Desk, LLC and provides writers, editors, and photographers for numerous kinds of contract projects from proposals and speeches to public relations and journalism. Reach him at alanportner@gmail.com.