When our winning rate decelerated in 2012, we conducted an internal audit. We wanted to find if there was a clear-cut pattern as to when, why, and how our picks won. We studied the records and analysis with each pick.
We scoured over years and years of data, picks, and intel used to support the bets. Many times we hit 60-70 percent over thousands of games, other times in the lower to mid 50 percentile.
In short, the most apparent deviation was when we allowed technology to supersede old-fashioned time-proven metrics that we won with on scorephones and now sports betting podcast.
The sport that stood out was college basketball. Our soul searching made it clear that injuries, especially players returning from such, scheduling dynamics, clear-cut emotional letdown situations and more are still the key to isolating off-lines.
Technology is great. Super systems, sharp versus square, market analysis are among the valuable tools that we added to our arsenal over the years. But in reality, this information is most affective corroborating old-fashioned time tested techniques.
Examples of strategies that should never be downplayed would be exploiting scheduling dynamics. Here is from a recent premium report, “In a schedule where 29th-year head coach Greg Kampe dubbed as stupid, Oakland is playing on the road in 15 of its first 19 games and traveling nearly 17,000 miles. OU is just 1-8 this season away from home and have lost five straight. They are understandably very road weary. The schedule maker has given us a gift here.”
After a 2-1 spread start, Oakland lost seven of their next eight road games sports betting Twitter feed followers were informed.
Similarly, the same day we won with UNLV over Canisius. “Canisius is playing their fourth game in seven days. Two were on the road or neutral at Syracuse and Temple. Now they are playing 1971 miles away from home. Yes, they will be fat and happy following the stunner over Temple, but what a tough turnaround heading to Vegas to play another good team in 48 hours. This is the same squad that lost to Stony Brook and was blown out of the arena in a short trip to Syracuse, so all signs point towards following up their best game of the year with a thud.”
We find TeamRankings.com to be the best source for streamlined travel analysis.
Analyzing injuries is not just about which players will not be playing that night, but what happens in the games (yes plural, not just his first game back) when key players return. An example, “NIU is coming into form getting key players back. Abdel Nader is averaging 14.0 points per game in three contests since returning from suspension. Nader is averaging 27.1 points per 40 minutes played.
Akeem Springs is averaging 11.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game since moving to a role off the bench in the last three games. Springs is shooting 50.0 percent, including 54.5 percent from 3-point range, during that time; Antone Christian returned against DePaul (Dec. 16) after missing six games due to injury. In his second game back at Seattle (Dec. 19), Christian scored a season-high 11 points in just 10 minutes of action.”
So often it takes time for chemistry to develop and for a player to rid of rust and ease back into the line-up. That’s why a team’s progress must be tracked two, three, and four games after a key player returns from a sustained absence.
Teams with schedules that have had a disproportionate number of road games will usually be undervalued. Those who have had substantial home cooking will be overestimated and are so often fade plays once they hit the road.
Teams’ own SID releases are goldmines for betting bellwethers. We find them best organized in the news section of BBState.com. Of course Google and Google News remain daily musts for searching specific information.
We have a long list of harbingers we keep an eye out for in addition to the aspects above. Examples:
Inexperienced teams tend to play much better at home early in the year, but after about a dozen games start to improve as a road bet just as their road power ratings drop. Experienced teams start out quickly and are especially quality road bets. But likewise after ten or so games, they reach a point of diminishing return and become a bit of a fade, especially on the road.
How do we define “experience?” The “experience tracker” at Statsheet.com is our favorite cheat sheet for such.
Another common occurrence would be squads that experiment with different line-ups early in the season, but settle into a rotation. How have the done with the stability? Are they improving a bit each game as one would expect?
Technology is wonderful and gamblers must exploit, but not at the expense of time-proven handicapping golden nuggets.
In hindsight I began to allow high tech toys to overshadow proven sports betting procedures. Introspection reminds us a proper balance begins by acknowledging the game itself is mastered much like it was before the Information Age. So is handicapping.