Raleigh Weather Discussion
After a very cold morning with a near record low at RDU of 23, we will slowly moderate but remain cooler than normal over the next 7-10 days.
A round of rain will likely move through tomorrow, but it will be light and probably not a washout. After a break Saturday night, another round will move through Sunday with perhaps more substantial rain. As of now, it looks like any snow will be confined to the highest elevations and be north of the state in Virginia. So it will be a cold rain for most of us.
As the coastal storm becomes the primary storm Sunday we could see a brief period of rain showers mixed with snow on Sunday morning, and as the storm winds up off the mid-Atlantic coast we could see some scattered showers or even snow flurries Monday/Tuesday, but for now the chances aren’t high enough to include in the forecast.
For now, I think next week will be dry with temperatures moderating through the week reaching the 60s by late in the week. A new storm system could move through the area by next weekend with another chance of rain.
National Extended Weather Discussion
In general the cooler than normal period looks continue through early April. The ensembles show a general cooler than normal pattern through the first few days of April. The latest ECMWF weeklies keep the colder pattern through at least the first 10-15 days of April before a warm pattern takes over by week 4 while the CFS continues to keep it cool through week 4.
The MJO is about to cross into phase 1. As it the wave progresses it will enter warmer phases in the next couple of weeks and this lends some support to a warmer pattern perhaps developing by the 2nd half of April.
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