Vietnam may be among the first, and hardest hit countries with regards to climate change. The erratic weather conditions and rising sea levels that climate change creates presents an especially acute threat to the predominately agricultural Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam. This is significant because of the Mekong Delta’s importance for the food security of both Vietnam and the larger Southeast Asian region
Climate change is expected to affect the Mekong River Delta in two ways: increasing the frequency and severity of droughts, and eventually flooding much of the region. For example, according to one study, by 2030 rainfall during the agriculturally vital months between January and July will be 20 percent lower than it was in 1980. These periods of drought are almost certain to reduce the agricultural output of farmers in region. Similarly, another study finds that sea levels will rise 1 meter by 2030, which will cause between 20 and 30 percent of the Mekong region to become submerged with water.
These twin disasters, besides the immediate threats they pose to the physical security of the people living in the Mekong Delta region, also threaten the food security of both Vietnam and its neighbors. Rice is the basic food stable for much of the population in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, for instance, is the fifth largest rice consuming country in the world despite having only the twelfth largest population in 2005. Farmers in the Mekong Delta meet much of the country’s rice needs, accounting for over 50 percent of the country’s total yield. The environmental changes that will reduce rice production in the Mekong Delta, therefore, will make it difficult for Vietnam to meet its growing population’s food needs.
The consequences of this problem extend beyond Vietnam’s borders however. Although Vietnam imported rice for decades, in the 1990’s it became a rice exporter. In fact, Vietnam is now the world’s second largest rice exporter in the world with around six million tonnes of rice being exported annually, or about 20 percent of the global rice trade. For countries that import large amounts of rice from Vietnam- such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia – the decrease in Vietnam’s rice production due to the effects of climate change will complicate efforts to feed their own mostly growing populations.
In fact, the Philippines, which is the largest importer of Vietnamese rice, is already taking steps to decrease its reliance on foreign food suppliers. Should turning inward economically become a trend among states in the region, it would not only reduce efficiency but also might spread to other sectors such as security. At the same time, such an inward turn is far from inevitable. Indeed, because the threats of climate change and food insecurity are shared among the countries in the region, the potential for cooperation is immense. Since cooperation offers the best chances for addressing these and other challenges, countries in the region should remain vigilant in their efforts to foster a collective environment.
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