It appears the Chicago and much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation will enter into an active/stormy weather pattern this week and beyond. As meteorologist, we look at what's called teleconnections or connections between hemispheric patterns. This is especially critical when wanting to to have an idea on the general weather pattern a week or two in advance. The PNA and NAO are two teleconnections that are observed the most because they can tell us whether the weather pattern will be active or not across the Midwest. For the coming week, it appears that both the PNA and NAO will be in a negative phase which is indicative of a wetter than normal pattern across the Midwest because it supports a mean trough setting up across the western U.S. and a more active southern stream track across the central U.S.
Weather models have supported this fact with a series of systems developing and moving across the central/eastern U.S. this week and beyond. In fact, I counted at least 3 storm systems that will impact the Chicago area or areas in the Midwest over the next 10 days.
Storm #1 Monday evening through Tuesday morning
Details on this storm has become clearer and clearer over the past several days in terms of its track and precipitation type. It appears that the storm will track to the north and west of the Chicago area putting us predominantly in the warm sector. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 40s and possibly 50 degrees on Monday amid gusty southwesterly winds. This means that precipitation will fall mainly as rain Monday evening/night before possibly transitioning over to a little bit of snow early Tuesday. Little or no snow/sleet accumulation is expected.
Storm #2 Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
This storm system is of greater interest in that its larger and seems to be more potent than the first storm. Weather models continue to indicate snow or a combination of snow and sleet Thursday evening into Friday afternoon. This one is still a ways off but its track seems to indicate that snowfall production will not be as great.
Storm #3 Monday evening through Tuesday
After the second storm system pulls out of the area, another on develops to our south and will eject out of the southern Plains (Texas) on Monday. Currently, the track of this storm is right over the Chicago area Monday evening meaning a rain mixed with freezing rain/sleet and changing to snow overnight into Tuesday. Details on accumulation and precipitation type will come in the days ahead as the track of this storm becomes clearer.
Complete Forecast
Monday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and warmer. Rain showers develop in the evening. Rain could switch to snow overnight. Little to no snow accumulation expected. Highs near 50 degrees. Winds west-southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 35 mph.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Slight chance for snow flurries. Highs in the lower 20s. Winds northwest 5-15 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cool. Highs in the lower 20s. Winds west-northwest 5-15 mph.
Thursday: Increasing clouds, breezy, and cool. Chance for snow or snow mixed with sleet at night. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds southwest 10-20 mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Chance for snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s. Winds southwest 5-15 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and cool. Highs in the lower 30s. Winds northwest 5-15 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and cool. Highs in the lower 30s. Winds northwest 5-15 mph.
Monday: Increasing clouds. Rain developing in the evening. Rain changes to snow overnight. Highs in the mid 40s. Winds southeast 10-20 mph.
8-15 day temperature trend outlook
Tuesday Feb. 26: Highs in the 30s.
Wednesday Feb. 27: Highs in the 30s.
Thursday Feb. 28: Highs in the 30s.
Friday Mar. 1: Highs in the 30s.
Saturday Mar. 2: Highs in the 30s.
Sunday Mar. 3: Highs in the 30s.
Monday Mar. 4: Highs in the 40s.
Tuesday Mar. 5: Highs in the 50s.
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