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Chesapeake Bay weather for March 1: sunny, seasonable Saturday

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool with a high in the mid to upper 40s.

Tonight: Variable cloudiness and not as cold with a low in the mid 30s.

Sunday: Clouds & sun early, then increasing clouds with a shower possible. Warmer with a high between 55 and 60.

Sunday Night: Rain developing, then mixing with freezing rain and sleet. Temperature falling into the 30s.

Monday: Snow, heavy at times. Snow may accumulate 5 or more inches. Very windy and cold with the temperature falling through the 20s.

The extended forecast calls for sunshine on Tuesday with a low around 5 and a high in the upper 20s. Mostly sunny on Wednesday with a low in the upper 10s and a high near 32. Clouds and sun on Thursday with a low in the lower 20s and a high in the upper 30s. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow on Friday. The low will be in the mid 20s and the high will be near 40.

The first day of meteorological spring begins today, but it feels like we are in the depths of winter. Morning lows ranged from 10 to 20 degrees across the region. However, a mild weekend is on the way. The mercury will rebound today into the 40s to near 50 as a southerly flow develops. This flow will keep temperatures above freezing at many locations overnight, and temperatures on Sunday will surge to near 60 degrees!

On Sunday night, our attention will turn to an area of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary. The system will not feature a strong center of low pressure, like a nor'easter, but rather an area of intense convergence caused by two air masses pressing into one another. Warm, subtropical air to the south will battle frigid air to the north. The area of convergence between the warm air to our south and the arctic air to the north will be the track upon which an area of low pressure will develop Sunday into Monday. Areas to the north of the convergence zone will experience a moderate to heavy snow event, with areas to the south receiving a soaking rain. In the middle, a wide range of precipitation types is expected including rain, sleet, snow, and even freezing rain. A significant period of icy conditions can be expected in this zone.

At the moment, central Maryland looks to be north of the convergence zone with mixed precipitation on Sunday night changing to heavy snow on Monday. A significant accumulation of more than 5" of snow certainly appears likely in central Maryland. A shift of 20 or 30 miles will have a significant impact on where the heaviest snow falls with this system. In addition to the snow, temperatures will plummet into the 20s during the day with winds gusting over 25 miles per hour at times. Clearing on Monday night will be accompanied by bitterly cold temperatures with low from 0 to 10 degrees by Tuesday morning.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, there are no advisories currently in effect. Winds today will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Winds tonight will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Winds on Sunday will come out of the south at 10 knots, then shift to the northeast at 10 to 15 knots with waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Sunday night will come out of the north at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow, and fog. Winds on Monday will come out of the north at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 20 knots with waves from 1 to 4 feet. Visibility will be reduced in snow and fog. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for March 1 is 49 degrees and the average low is 29 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 80 degrees in 1972, and 11 degrees in 1980. Today's sunrise will occur at 6:39 and the sunset will occur at 5:59. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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