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Chesapeake Bay weather for January 5: Milder with rain showers

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Light freezing drizzle possible early, then mostly cloudy with occasional rain showers. High around 40.

Tonight: Occasional rain showers. Temperature rising into the lower 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy; becoming windy and turning colder during the afternoon with scattered rain and snow showers. Temperature falling through the 30s.

Monday Night: Windy and cold with a low around 10.

Tuesday: Sunny, breezy, and cold with a high in the upper 10s.

The extended outlook calls for a mostly sunny sky on Wednesday with a low around 10 and a high near 30. Clouds and sun on Thursday with a low around 20 and a high near 40. A chance of rain or snow showers on Friday with a low around 30 and a high around 45. Clouds and sun on Saturday with a low around 32 and a high in the upper 40s.

There is a wide range of temperatures this morning in central Maryland. For example, at 8 a.m. Annapolis is reporting 35 degrees while locations across northern Maryland are in the middle 10s. A freezing rain advisory is posted for Anne Arundel County and points to the north and west, but most of the freezing rain today will occur to the north and west of Baltimore and Washington where temperatures will be much colder. A developing storm system will move northeast along the western edge of the Appalachian Mountains today and tonight. This counterclockwise flow around the storm will bring a southerly wind to the bay region. Initially, precipitation may fall in the form of light freezing mist or rain as precipitation overrides cold air at the surface; however, the cold layer will begin to erode and the precipitation will change to rain Sunday afternoon. As the storm moves into Ontario, a strong arctic front will traverse the mountains and push all the way to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday. Some light precipitation associated with the cold front may produce some rain or snow showers in the Annapolis area on Monday. In the wake of the cold front, some of the coldest temperatures in years will be felt in the Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may reach zero inland and the single digits along the bay shore. Highs on Tuesday may stay in the teens with a wind chill below zero. Fortunately, the cold snap will be short-lived as the mercury recovers quickly into the 30s on Thursday and 40s by Friday. A storm system may bring rain or mixed precipitation to the area late next week. The long-range trend currently indicates that we will experience mild temperatures from January 10 through January 20 with minimal chances for snow in the bay region.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6 p.m. this evening through Monday afternoon. Winds today will come out of the east at 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Winds tonight will come out of the south at 10 to 15 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Winds on Monday will come out of the northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 40 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain and/or snow showers. Winds on Monday night will come out of the northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Winds on Tuesday will come out of the west at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 30 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for January 5 is 42 degrees and the average low is 25 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 69 degrees in 1997 and 1 degree in 1877. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:26 and the sunset will occur at 4:58. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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