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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 9: snow showers ending tonight

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing late. The low will be in the mid 20s.

Monday: Mostly sunny but cold with a high around 35.

Monday Night: Mostly clear and cold with a low around 20.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold with a high near 35.

The extended forecast calls for increasing clouds on Wednesday with evening snow. The low will be in the mid 20s and the high will be in the mid 30s. A chance of snow or rain on Thursday with a low around 30 and a high in the upper 30s. Mostly sunny and breezy on Friday with a low in the mid 20s and a high in the mid 30s.

A weak upper-level disturbance moved across the area this afternoon & early evening with a period of light sleet and snow. In the Annapolis area, sleet began just before 6 p.m. and then quickly changed over to snow with about a half inch of accumulation. As this low pulls away from the area overnight, cold high pressure will build in the Middle Atlantic region on Monday and Tuesday. This will result in sunny, but cold conditions with highs about 10 degrees colder than seasonal averages. The average high this time of year is in the mid 40s, but highs on Monday and Tuesday will struggle to break above the freezing point. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 10s to mid 20s. As we move closer to the middle of the week, computer forecast models are coming into closer agreement on a coastal storm that could potentially become a nor'easter. The exact intensity and track of the storm is yet to be determined, but the ultimate track will play a significant role in our local weather. A track inland will result in a burst of snow changing to rain. A middle track right along the Atlantic coastline would result in a period of accumulating snow changing to rain, and then perhaps back to snow at the end. Another scenario takes the low just off the coast, which might bring all snow to Baltimore, Washington, and Annapolis. The potential exists for a significant accumulation of snow and ice from this system. As the storm moves away from the region on Thursday, cold high pressure will return with sunshine on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain below average during the period.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon. Winds tonight will come out of the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Monday will come out of the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Monday night will come out of the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Winds on Tuesday will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Tuesday night will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Winds on Wednesday will come out of the northeast at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Boaters should prepare for icy conditions on the bay. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 9 is 44 degrees and the average low is 26 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 69 degrees in 2001 and -7 degrees in 1934 (also the extreme record low for the month.) Today's sunrise will occur at 7:05 and the sunset will occur at 5:36. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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