Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:
This afternoon: Sunny and unseasonably cold with a high near 25.
Tonight: Clear and very cold with a low in the upper 10s.
Saturday: Clouds & sun. Not as cold with a high in the upper 30s.
Saturday Night: Variable cloudiness with a low in the lower 30s.
Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy with afternoon rain showers and a high near 40.
The extended forecast calls for mixed precipitation changing to snow on Monday with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Sunny and cold on Tuesday with a low in the lower 20s and a high in the upper 20s. Mostly sunny and cold on Wednesday with a low around 15 and a high near 30. Mostly cloudy on Thursday with a chance of snow. The low will be around 20 and the high will be near 35.
The last day of February is turning out to be one of the coldest days of the winter season. Despite a lack of snow cover, and considering the strength of the late-winter sun, temperatures are struggling to reach 25 degrees this afternoon. At 1 p.m. temperatures include 23 at Washington, 20 at Baltimore, 20 at Annapolis, 26 at Salisbury, 28 at Richmond, and 28 at Norfolk. The average high for this time of year is in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees! Fortunately, winds are on the light side and therefore wind chill values are not as low as they could be. Tonight the mercury will dip back into the 10s, but tomorrow morning should be about five degrees colder than this morning's lows which ranged from 10 to 15 degrees. The upcoming weekend will feature fair weather, but rain showers may move into the region by Sunday afternoon. Highs over the weekend will range from the upper 30s on Saturday to the lower 40s on Sunday.
On Sunday night, our attention will turn to an area of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary. The system will not feature a strong center of low pressure, like a nor'easter, but rather an area of intense convergence caused by two air masses pressing into one another. Warm, subtropical air to the south will battle the Polar Vortex to the north. The area of convergence between the warm air to our south and the arctic air to the north will be the track upon which an area of low pressure will develop Sunday into Monday. Areas to the north of the convergence zone will experience a moderate to heavy snow event, with areas to the south receiving a soaking rain. In the middle, a wide range of precipitation types is expected including rain, sleet, snow, and even freezing rain. A significant period of icy conditions can be expected in this zone. At the moment, central Maryland looks to be in the convergence zone with mixed precipitation and potentially icy conditions developing by Sunday night and Monday morning. As the low shifts to the coast, colder air drawn into the system may change all precipitation to snow from Annapolis to the north and west. An accumulation of snow is certainly appears likely in central Maryland. This complex weather system will need to be monitored, for a shift of twenty or thirty miles will have a significant impact on our local weather. The temperature gradient on either side of the convergence zone will be stark with sub-freezing temperatures and snow only one hundred miles from temperatures in the 40s and 50s with rain.
On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, there are no advisories currently in effect. Winds this afternoon will come out of the northeast at 10 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Winds tonight will come out of the east at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Saturday will come out of the southeast at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Winds on Saturday night will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Winds on Sunday will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog on Sunday afternoon. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.
The average high temperature for February 28 is 49 degrees and the average low is 29 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 76 degrees in 1976, and 9 degrees in 1980. Today's sunrise will occur at 6:41 and the sunset will occur at 5:58. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.