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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 21: showers and storms early, then clearing

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Showers and thunderstorms early, then mostly cloudy. High around 55.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing late with a low around 40.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high around 60, except cooler near the bay shore.

Saturday Night: Clear with a low in the upper 30s.

Sunday: Sunny and pleasant with a high from 55 to 60, a bit cooler near the bay shore.

The extended forecast calls for a mostly sunny sky Monday with a low in the mid 30s and a high in the mid 40s. Clouds and sun on Tuesday with a snow or rain shower late. The low will be around 30 and the high will be near 40. Clouds and sun on Wednesday with a snow shower early. The low will be around 30 and the high will be in the upper 30s. Mostly sunny on Thursday with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the mid 30s.

A cold front is approaching the bay this morning and will push across the Chesapeake this afternoon. As a result, a line of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to reach the western shore just before noon and on Delmarva by early afternoon. Temperatures this morning range from the upper 40s at the north end of the bay to the lower 70s at the mouth of the bay near Cape Charles VA. Although this line of storms produced widespread severe weather yesterday, the line has weakened considerably. Nonetheless, there is a chance of a severe thunderstorm in southeast Virginia where temperatures are much warmer and where there is more instability in the atmosphere. To the north across central Maryland, some thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out, but no severe weather is expected. Heavy downpours will be brief, but there may be some localized flooding due to melting snow. High across central & northern Maryland will reach the mid to upper 50s today. The upcoming weekend will feature sunny and pleasant weather with highs each day near 60, except cooler near the bay shore. Next week, significantly colder air will pour into the region and there may be the potential for one or two snow events. The first chance for snow will come on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but this looks to be a relatively light event. The second chance for snow will come the following weekend, but at the moment there is not enough computer model consistency to ascertain whether there will definitely be a storm in our area. In any event, it looks as though late February and the first week of March will be cold and stormy in the Chesapeake region.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 p.m. this evening. Winds today will come out of the south at 10 to 20 knots with waves from 1 to 3 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Winds tonight will come out of the southwest at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Saturday will come out of the southwest at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Saturday night will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 21 is 46 degrees and the average low is 28 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 74 degrees in 1930 and 25 degrees in 1885. Today's sunrise will occur at 6:50 and the sunset will occur at 5:50. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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