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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 2: spring today, rain & snow tomorrow

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

This afternoon: Sunny and mild with a high from 55 to 60. Light southerly winds.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with rain developing. The low will be around 40.

Monday: Rain, mixing with and/or changing to snow during the day. Snow may accumulate an inch or two north and west of Annapolis, with mostly rain south and east of town. The temperature will be falling into the 30s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a low in the lower 30s.

Tuesday: Clouds and sunshine with a high around 40.

The extended outlook calls for rain on Wednesday with a low in the mid 30s and a high near 50. Mostly sunny and breezy on Thursday with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the upper 30s. Clouds and sun on Friday with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the upper 30s. Mixed rain and snow changing to rain on Saturday with a low in the upper 20s and a high near 40.

One of the more pleasant days of the winter season will occur today in the Chesapeake Bay region. While local rivers and ponds are covered with ice and snow, a warm southerly flow of air will enable temperatures to approach 60 degrees under a mostly sunny sky. The spring preview will result from a clockwise flow of air around high pressure to our east and a south wind advancing into the region ahead of a cold front. This front will begin to spread clouds over the area later this afternoon and evening, and eventually produce rain showers during the evening hours with temperatures falling into the 40s. Rain will continue overnight and through the morning hours with the mercury slowly falling into the 30s during the day on Monday. The rain may mix with or change to snow in Washington, Baltimore, and Annapolis depending on the timing of the cold air and the precipitation. At the moment, it looks as though the cold air will be slow in arriving, and this will result in rain for most of the event. However, a quick changeover to snow could produce an inch or two of accumulation before the precipitation comes to an end. This would occur during the daytime hours. With temperatures at or slightly above freezing, main thoroughfares will be mostly wet except briefly covered during heavier snow bursts (if they indeed occur.) A more significant accumulation of snow is likely to the north and west of Baltimore and Washington, and across northern Delmarva, where 6 to 12 inches may accumulate by afternoon. Fair weather returns to the region on Tuesday followed by another winter storm on Wednesday. This system will produce all rain in the local area as the center of low pressure will move to our west and place us in a warm sector. Across northern Maryland and northern Delmarva, a brief period of freezing rain may occur on Wednesday morning before changing to all rain. The long range outlook calls for another potential winter storm by next weekend, but this system looks to produce snow changing to rain in central Maryland.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, there are no advisories currently in effect. Winds on Sunday will come out of the west at 10 knots or less with waves less than one foot. Visibility may be reduced in areas of fog. Winds on Sunday night will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Winds on Monday will come out of the north at 10 to 15 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain, snow, and fog. Winds on Monday night will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Visibility may be reduced early in snow, rain, and fog. Boaters should prepare for icy conditions on the bay. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 2 is 42 degrees and the average low is 25 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 71 degrees in 1967 and 1 degree in 1961. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:12 and the sunset will occur at 5:29. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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