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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 19: morning showers, mild afternoon with sun

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Morning showers and fog giving way to clouds & sun during the afternoon with scattered rain showers. High 50 to 55.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a low in the mid 30s.

Thursday: Clouds and sun with a high from 50 to 55.

Thursday Night: Variable cloudiness with showers late. Mild with a low around 45.

Friday: Rain showers and possible thunder. The high will be in the low to mid 60s, but falling into the 50s during the afternoon.

The extended forecast calls for a mostly sunny sky on Saturday with a high from the upper 50s near the bay shore to the mid 60s inland. Mostly sunny on Sunday with a low around 45 and a high near 55. Mostly sunny on Monday with a low in the mid 30s and a high in the upper 40s. Mostly sunny on Tuesday with a low in the lower 30s and a high in the upper 30s.

A weak cold front pushed across the bay this morning and produced widespread rain showers. Some clearing is likely during the afternoon hours with the mercury topping 50 degrees, but there may be a few rain showers through late afternoon. The air behind the front will be mild with lows on Thursday only around 35 and highs on Thursday in the low to mid 50s. On Friday, another cold front will approach from the west. A warm flow of air ahead of the front will push temperatures into the 60s. Widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will develop by Friday afternoon as cooler air from the west clashes with the mild air in place over the Middle Atlantic states. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out at this time. As with the current front, the air behind Friday's frontal passage will be mild so that readings on Saturday will reach 60 degrees under a mostly sunny sky. The thermometer readings will drop slightly on Sunday with highs only around 50, which is still about five degrees above seasonal average highs. As we move into next week, the "Polar Vortex" will make a return to the Middle Atlantic and New England states with unseasonably cold air and the potential for a winter storm at some point during the week. Development of low pressure often occurs on the leading edge of a cold air mass, or when the air mass is retreating to the north. Computer forecast models are indicating that low pressure may form along the arctic front and produce wintery precipitation by the middle or latter portion of next week.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6 a.m. Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon. Winds on Wednesday will come out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves up to 2 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain showers and fog. Winds on Wednesday night will come out of the northwest at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Thursday will come out of the southeast around 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Winds on Thursday night will come out of the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 25 knots and waves up to 3 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain showers and fog. Winds on Friday will come out of the southwest at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 25 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 19 is 46 degrees and the average low is 27 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 72 degrees in 1997 and 19 degrees in 1903. Today's sunrise will occur at 6:53 and the sunset will occur at 5:48. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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