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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 16: a cold but sunny Sunday

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Mostly sunny but cold with a high near 35.

Tonight: Mostly clear and cold with a low around 20.

Monday: Mostly sunny but cold with a high near 35.

Monday Night: Snow showers mixed with sleet and freezing rain. Snow and ice accumulation around one inch. Low in the upper 20s.

Tuesday: Morning rain or snow showers. Becoming sunny during the afternoon with a high in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The extended forecast calls for a mostly sunny sky on Wednesday with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the upper 40s. Mostly sunny on Thursday with a low in the lower 30s and a high in the lower 50s. A chance of rain showers on Friday. The low will be around 40 and the high will be near 60.

High pressure will slowly build over the Middle Atlantic states today in the wake of a strong nor'easter that produced light snow in our region on Saturday while bringing significant snow and strong winds to eastern New England overnight. Under a clear sky and diminishing winds overnight, the mercury has dropped into the lower and middle 20s around the northern Chesapeake Bay. There will be plenty of bright February sunshine today, but afternoon highs will only reach the middle 30s at best. Occasional breezes may make it feel a bit cooler. Temperatures will fall back into the upper 10s to lower 20s again tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Monday will begin with sunshine, but high clouds will overspread the area during the day. A negatively-tiled trough will move through the region on Monday night and produce a period of snow in central Maryland. The snow will change to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain toward morning as a warm front moves from south to north across the bay region. Snow and ice accumulations are expected to be limited to around an inch or so in the Annapolis area before the change over. Tuesday morning's commute could be tricky with lingering icy conditions, especially to the north and west. Ironically, this next winter weather event is actually going to occur because we are transitioning into a milder weather pattern rather than signifying a continuation of winter. The period Tuesday through Friday will see daytime highs climb from the 40s to the 50s and perhaps even 60 on Friday. Looking ahead, a return to colder and stormier weather is expected after next weekend, so the upcoming February thaw will be limited to a few days.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. this morning. Winds on Sunday will come out of the west at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds tonight will come out of the northwest at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Monday will come out of the northeast at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Winds on Monday night will come out of the southeast at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Visibility may be reduced in snow and fog. Winds on Tuesday will come out of the south at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Boaters should prepare for icy conditions on the bay. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 16 is 45 degrees and the average low is 27 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 75 degrees in 1954 and 5 degrees in 1905. Today's sunrise will occur at 6:58 and the sunset will occur at 5:43. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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