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Chesapeake Bay Weather for February 12: Winter Storm Warning tonight & Thursday

Brian's extended forecast and forecaster's notes
Brian's extended forecast and forecaster's notes
Brian Mark Weber

Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

*The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning*

Today: Sunny and cold with a high in the mid to upper 20s.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with snow by midnight. Snow may be heavy between midnight and 6 a.m. with an accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. The low will be in the mid 20s. Winds increasing and gusting over 25 m.p.h. toward morning.

Thursday: Snow changing to sleet and/or freezing drizzle. Snow re-developing during the afternoon. The high will be in the upper 20s to around 30. Winds gusting over 30 miles per hour at times. Additional snowfall about 2 inches.

Thursday Night: Snow tapering to snow flurries after midnight. Additional snowfall of 2 to 4 inches. Total snowfall accumulation around 10 inches. Winds gusting over 30 miles per hour at times. The low will be in the mid 20s.

The extended forecast calls for clouds and sun on Friday with a chance of snow showers late Friday night. The low will be in the mid 20s and the high will be in the mid 30s. Mostly sunny and cold on Saturday and Sunday with a low in the upper 10s and a high in the lower 30s.

A sunny day on the Chesapeake, but temperatures are cold with early-afternoon readings only in the mid 20s. The entire area is under a Winter Storm Warning. A potent winter storm is currently developing near the Gulf of Mexico. A wide swath of moisture ahead of the low will overspread Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia during the evening hours, probably after 9 p.m. Snow will continue overnight and will be heavy at times, accumulating 4 to 6 inches by morning in the Washington, Baltimore, Annapolis triangle. As the low intensifies near Norfolk, VA milder air aloft may cause the snow to change to sleet and/or freezing drizzle during the morning on Thursday. At this time, winds will be increasing and may gust over 30 miles per hour at times. As the storm continues to intensify and moves to the north/northeast, precipitation will become heavier and will change back to all snow during the afternoon and evening hours with additional snowfall accumulation expected. A total snowfall accumulation of about 10 inches is expected in the Annapolis area, with more to the north & west and less to the south & east. There are still several factors that could impact this forecast, including how much the storm intensifies and the exact track of the center of low pressure. In addition to the heavy, wet snow there will be strong winds that may result in power outages. By late Thursday night, precipitation will begin to taper to snow showers or flurries followed by a cloudy overnight. Sunshine returns on Friday with temperatures breaking above the freezing point; however, a clipper system may produce another burst of snow on Friday night to be followed by a sunny but cold weekend with highs struggling to reach the freezing point. In the long-range, it appears that a break in the pattern will occur next week with highs climbing back closer to seasonal averages.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 11 p.m. this evening through late tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon. Winds tonight will come out of the northeast at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 30 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Visibility may be reduced in snow, sleet, and fog. Winds on Thursday will come out of the north at 20 knots with gusts over 40 knots and waves from 3 to 5 feet. Visibility may be reduced in snow, sleet, and fog. Winds on Thursday night will come out of the northwest at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 30 knots and waves from 2 to 4 feet. Visibility may be reduced in snow, sleet, and fog. Winds on Friday will come out of the southwest at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Boaters should prepare for icy conditions on the bay. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 12 is 44 degrees and the average low is 26 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 73 degrees in 1999 and 11 degrees in 1899. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:02 and the sunset will occur at 5:40. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.