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Chesapeake Bay weather for February 1: sunny and mild Saturday

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

This afternoon: Mostly sunny and mild with a high from the mid 40s near the bay shore to the mid 50s inland.

Tonight: Generally clear, but areas of fog developing overnight with a low around 35.

Sunday: Variable cloudiness and mild with a few afternoon rain showers. The high will be from the mid 40s near the bay shore to the lower 50s inland.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Rain may mix with snow at times toward morning. The low will be in the mid 30s.

Monday: A mixture of rain and snow, changing to snow during the day. Snow may accumulate 1" by afternoon, with heavier snow north & west of Annapolis and mostly rain south and east of Annapolis. The high will be in the mid 30s.

The extended outlook calls for mostly cloudy conditions on Tuesday with a low around 30 and a high around 40. A chance of rain on Wednesday with a low around 35 and a high near 45. Becoming mostly sunny on Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs in the mid to upper 30s.

High pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast provided the bay area with plenty of sunshine today along with mild temperatures. Readings this morning were below freezing, but mild compared to recent mornings, with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. During the day, the mercury climbed into the 40s along the bay shore and the low to mid 50s inland. A southerly flow between high pressure to our east, and an advancing cold front to our west, will result in mild temperatures again tonight with readings by Sunday morning only between 30 and 35 degrees. During the day on Sunday, morning sunshine will give way to more cloudiness and scattered showers during the afternoon as the front approaches from the west. Rain showers will continue through the evening, but most showers will be light. During the overnight hours, low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary and produce a mixture of rain and snow in central Maryland. By Monday morning, mixed precipitation will change over to snow to the north with mostly rain to the south. The dividing line between heavy, accumulating snow and rain or mixed rain and snow will only be twenty or so miles. Exactly where this line sets up is yet to be determined, but this will have a significant impact on whether residents in Baltimore, Washington, and Annapolis see wet snowflakes or receive a plowable snowfall of several inches. The only certainty in the forecast is that northern Maryland will see a spread of 4 to 8 inches of accumulation and that southern Maryland will see plain rain. Temperatures during the event will hover around the freezing point, making forecasts more complex. As of 7 p.m. this evening, a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for areas to the north and west of Baltimore and Washington. Watches or advisories may be expanded to the south and east only if and when the National Weather Service determines that conditions warrant a notice; however, this may not occur until a few hours before the event commences.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, there are no advisories currently in effect. Winds tonight will come out of the southwest at 10 knots with waves less than one foot. Visibility may be reduced in fog. Winds on Sunday will come out of the west at 10 knots or less with waves less than one foot. Visibility may be reduced in areas of fog. Winds on Sunday night will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Winds on Monday will come out of the north at 10 to 15 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain, snow, and fog. Winds on Monday night will come out of the north at 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Visibility may be reduced early in snow, rain, and fog. Boaters should prepare for icy conditions on the bay. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for February 1 is 42 degrees and the average low is 25 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 75 degrees in 2002 and 7 degrees in 1965. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:13 and the sunset will occur at 5:27. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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