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Chesapeake Bay weather for December 30: evening update

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Overnight: Mostly clear with a low in the upper 20s.

Tuesday: Clouds and sun with scattered snow flurries. High in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear with a low in the mid 20s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high in the mid to upper 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday: Cloudy with mixed rain and snow toward evening. Low in the lower 30s. High in the upper 30s.

The extended outlook calls for sunny and cold conditions on Friday with a low in the mid 20s and a high in the upper 20s. Mostly sunny and cold on Saturday with a low around 15 and a high in the upper 20s. Clouds and sun on Sunday with a low in the lower 20s and a high in the upper 30s.

After a wet Sunday that produced more than an inch of rainfall across the region, high pressure became the dominant weather feature today. As a result, persistent cloudiness during the day gave way to partial clearing later in the afternoon with temperatures in the lower 40s. Overnight, temperatures will fall back into the upper 20s. On Tuesday, a weak cold front will push through the region and produce a few clouds and perhaps a stray snow flurry or rain shower. Sunshine returns on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front. Meanwhile, a complex system is developing for Thursday into Friday. For the past couple of days, global weather computer models forecast two areas of low pressure developing in our region, one to the west and one along the coast. Typically, this scenario yields little snowfall south of the Mason-Dixon line. Today's model projections have strengthened the coastal low, which would produce a more significant snowfall from Washington to Boston. Although the exact details of this system have yet to be determined, right now the prospects for snowfall are somewhat better in the Annapolis area for Thursday into Friday. A shot of very cold air will surge into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states on Friday. The intensity of the cold will be dependent on the strength of the winter storm and the depth of the snowfall in its wake; however, high temperatures on Friday may remain below freezing with overnight lows dropping to around 15 degrees by Saturday morning (perhaps as much as five degrees colder with fresh snow cover.) Fortunately, the mercury will rebound quickly over the weekend with highs in the 30s on Saturday and 40s on Sunday. The warm-up will be quick as well, and there are indications that another push of arctic air will barrel into the northeast states next week.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Winds on Tuesday will come out of the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots, then shift to the west at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 25 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Tuesday night will come from the northwest at 15 to 20 knots with gusts over 25 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Wednesday will come out of the east at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for December 31 is 42 degrees and the average low is 25 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 72 degrees in 1992 and -1 degrees in 1880. Tuesday's sunrise will occur at 7:26 and the sunset will occur at 4:53. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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