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Chesapeake Bay weather for December 22: warm and humid with rain showers

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Mostly cloudy and warm with showers & thundershowers. High around 70.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and a low in the low to mid 50s.

Monday: Clouds and sun, breezy at times. The high will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

Monday Night: Variable cloudiness and colder with a rain or snow shower. Low around 35.

Tuesday: Clouds and sun with a few flurries or rain showers possible and a high in the upper 30s.

The extended outlook calls for a mostly sunny sky on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with lows in the mid 20s and highs in the mid 30s.

Our weather this morning is more reflective of a summer morning than the first full day of winter. Temperatures at 9 a.m. are in the upper 60s to lower 70s and a line of thundershowers has just swept across the bay with heavy downpours. A new record high temperature of 71 occurred this morning, as Baltimore broke the record of 70 degrees set in 1889. Warm and humid conditions can be expected today with widespread showers and thundershowers. Some thundershowers may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds, but no severe weather is expected. A strong southerly flow is surging northward in advance of a cold front that will push across the bay overnight. This frontal passage will continue to produce scattered rain showers overnight, but clearing is expected during the day on Monday. Temperatures behind the front will not be all that cold. Highs on Monday will still inch toward 60 degrees by the afternoon, but a stronger secondary front will usher in much colder air by Tuesday and Wednesday. This second frontal passage may produce a few rain or snow showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 30s, and highs on Christmas Day will struggle to reach 32 degrees. High pressure will build over the region later in the week. The result will be a mostly sunny sky with temperatures a bit below seasonal averages. The long-range outlook continues to indicate a turn to much colder weather during the first week of January.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Sunday evening. Winds on Sunday will come out of the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Sunday night will come out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Monday will come out of the south at 10 knots, but then shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots. Waves will be from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Monday night will come out of the northwest at 10 to 20 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Visibility may be reduced in rain showers and fog on Sunday and Sunday evening. Marine information is provided as general guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for December 22 is 43 degrees and the average low is 27 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 71 degrees in 2013 and 4 degrees in 1948 and 1989. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:23 and the sunset will occur at 4:47. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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