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Chesapeake Bay weather for December 14: morning mix changing to rain showers

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Light snow and sleet changing to rain. The high will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tonight: Rain showers and areas of fog with a low in the upper 30s.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny with a high in the mid 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the mid 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a low in the lower 20s and a high in the low 40s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a low in the upper 20s and a high in the mid 40s.

The extended outlook calls for sunshine on Thursday with lows in the lower 30s and highs in the upper 40s. Scattered rain showers on Friday with a low around 40 and a high in the upper 50s.

An area of low pressure is moving northeast toward the Middle Atlantic states this morning. A warm front associated with the low has allowed for temperatures to moderate overnight. Morning temperatures are at, or above, freezing at many locations around the bay. As a result, any snow or sleet that falls this morning will melt on roadways and walkways. During the afternoon and evening, the energy from the first low will transfer to a new low on the coast. This process will leave the northern bay area under a weaker spread of precipitation that will fall in the form of light sleet and snow initially, but then change to rain showers. Showers will persist into the evening hours with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. In northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania, colder air will support more frozen precipitation. One to three inches of snow may fall in places like Frederick and Westminster before changing to sleet and freezing rain, and eventually plain rain. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for places like Westminster, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Bel Air. On Sunday winds will wrap around the coastal low and will create breezy conditions around the bay; however, the sky will clear during the day and temperatures will reach the lower to middle 40s. Looking ahead, a moderation in temperatures will occur throughout next week so that by next Friday the mercury will break above the 60-degree mark. As is typical for this time of year, warm-ups are usually followed by colder air, and we do expect more seasonable readings to return to the Middle Atlantic states after next weekend.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Winds on Saturday will come out of the east at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Visibility may be reduced in snow, sleet, rain, and fog on Saturday. Winds on Saturday night will come out of the east at 10 to 15 knots, but then shift to the northwest overnight with gusts over 20 knots. Waves will be from 1 to 3 feet. Winds on Sunday will come out of the west at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots and waves from 1 to 3 feet. Marine information is provided only as guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for December 14 is 46 degrees and the average low is 28 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 71 degrees in 1925 and 1929, and 11 degrees in 1960. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:18 and the sunset will occur at 4:44. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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