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Chesapeake Bay weather for December 13: Sunny and seasonably chilly

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Brian's exclusive forecast for Baltimore, Annapolis, and northern Delmarva:

Today: Mostly sunny and chilly with a high in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tonight: Variable cloudiness with a low in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow and sleet changing to rain. The high will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday Night: Rain showers with areas of fog. The low will be in the mid 30s.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny and seasonably cold with a high in the upper 30s.

Sunday Night: Variable cloudiness with a low in the upper 20s.

Monday: Sunny and colder with a high in the mid to upper 30s.

The extended forecast calls for a mostly sunny sky on Tuesday through Thursday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs each day in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Today we will continue to be under the influence of high pressure; consequently, we can expect a mostly sunny sky with light winds and chilly temperatures. The high's influence will wane later tonight and give way to low pressure. As a result, another winter storm will impact the Middle Atlantic states, but the word storm makes this system more ominous than it will be for the bay area. To the north and west, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for places like Hagerstown, Frederick, and Westminster where several inches of snow and ice may accumulate on Saturday. In Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and the Hudson River valley in upstate New York, a significant snowstorm is likely. Closer to the bay, an inch or less of snow and ice will transition over to a cold rain. A Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for Baltimore, Washington, and Annapolis at some point. The development of the system will feature one low moving northeast from the Tennessee Valley and a secondary low forming off the Delmarva coast. With fresh cold air in place over the region, precipitation on Saturday may begin as snow and/or sleet, but will transition to rain as warmer air moves in from the south. Secondary lows are not big snow producers in the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure over New England (a key ingredient to snowstorms in the Chesapeake area) will be moving away rather than holding firm. This scenario supports a mix to rain event for Annapolis. Additionally, when the primary low transfers energy to the secondary low, central Maryland is often in a zone where precipitation is light. Consequently, this Saturday's event will not feature heavy precipitation in the area. As we move into next week, another brief surge of arctic air will overspread the area on Monday but temperatures will moderate quickly into the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. The long range outlook reveals the potential for a significant outbreak of arctic air as we move into next weekend.

On the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon today. Winds today will come out of the west at 5 to 10 knots with waves from 1 to 2 feet. Winds tonight will come out of the east at 5 to 10 knots with waves one foot or less. Winds on Saturday will come out of the east at 10 knots with waves around one foot. Visibility may be reduced in snow, sleet, rain, and fog on Saturday. Winds on Saturday night will come out of the east at 10 knots, but then shift to the west overnight. Waves will be around one foot. Visibility may be reduced in rain and fog. Marine information is provided only as guidance. Boaters should always stay tuned to the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Weather Service.

The average high temperature for December 13 is 46 degrees and the average low is 29 degrees. The records at Baltimore on this date are 69 degrees in 1889 and 7 degrees in 1962. Today's sunrise will occur at 7:18 and the sunset will occur at 4:44. Weather data courtesy of the National Weather Service. For more weather updates, please visit my Chesapeake Bay Weather page on Facebook, and if you're heading to Ocean City feel free to check out my Ocean City MD Weather page on Facebook. You can also follow me on Twitter @chesbayweather.

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