The nice, late summer-like weather continued into Saturday with temperatures across Long Island reaching 80 degrees and beyond. A seabreeze brought in a little more humidity, but levels were still quite comfortable compared to what summer usually brings this time of year. While temperatures remain on the "cool" side for Sunday, the numbers rise into next week and the warm season returns.
A frontal boundary stuck in the Southeast was expected to remain there. Rain was forecasted to be just south of Long Island into Sunday, confirmed by many model runs in the past week. In a bit of a switch, both American models recently drove some rain across the area, leading to a pessimistic forecast to finish out the weekend. Even the European model gives Long Island rain on Sunday.
Saturday's afternoon runs still paint different pictures and creates a forecast conundrum. When confining model forecasting to the American couple, the GFS model takes a weak low pressure center up the coast and brings rain in through most of the day, mostly light. It's enough rain to spoil outdoor plans. The NAM model keeps this low offshore and Long Island is left with clouds and a dry forecast. The result is a forecast that calls for a chance of rain. In meteorologists' speak, don't be surprised.
Other than the slight chance of a thunderstorm mid-week, next week looks dry, plus increasingly warmer and more humid. Significant rain is not expected for several days. Highs are in the 70s Sunday, 80s for all of next week.