High pressure, the center of whose axis was located from roughly southeastern Ontario province in Canada, to central Ohio, will build eastward toward the Capital Region today. This high pressure area will be east of the region by Tuesday afternoon. Through this time period, the Capital Region should experience a lull in the precipitation and murkiness experienced over the past weekend. Sunshine should mix with some clouds today, and through the first part of tomorrow. A mostly clear sky is anticipated for the overnight hours tonight, along with some chilly temperatures.
A complex storm system was taking shape over the southern Plains, Texas, and the southeastern United States Monday morning. This storm is forecast to gather strength and abundant moisture, courtesy of the Gulf of Mexico, through Tuesday. The initial area of low pressure is forecast to track through the lower and middle Mississippi valley through Tuesday morning, while secondary low pressure forms across the southeastern states and tracks toward the Carolina coastline. The track of both low pressure areas looks to be decidedly further westward than any predecessor low pressure areas that have impacted the region thus far this winter season. In fact, by Thursday morning, low pressure is forecast to be in the vicinity of the mid Hudson Valley.
The forecast track of the low pressure systems associated with the looming storm lend themselves to a more ‘relatively warmer’ and more mixed precipitation type of an event, as opposed to an all snow event. Precipitation may begin on Tuesday night as snow, but should quickly transition to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and then eventually liquid rain during the day on Wednesday.
Unsettled conditions persist behind the system as it lifts away from the region to close the work week and head into the weekend. Subtle upper level disturbances look to impact the region from time to time in a brisk northerly to northwesterly flow pattern. Thus, any warming produced by the strengthening late February sun may induce cloud formation and widely scattered flurries or sprinkles from time to time as we head into the weekend.
Temperatures and precipitation amounts are both forecast to be near to slightly above normal for the duration of the forecast period.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Mostly sunny. High near 40. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Low 20-25. Light northerly winds.
Tuesday: Morning mix of sun and clouds giving way to increasing clouds during the afternoon. High in the lower 40’s. Easterly winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday Night: Increasing, thickening, and lowering clouds. Light snow developing, and mixing with sleet from time to time overnight. Low near 30. East to northeasterly winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Snow accumulations of an inch or less with a minor ice accumulation also possible.
Wednesday: A wintry mix of light snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain early, changing to light rain by afternoon. High in the lower 40’s. Easterly winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Little if any additional snow accumulation expected. Additional minor ice accumulation is possible during the morning.
Thursday: Overcast with a 50 percent chance of light rain and showers. High near 45 and low near 35.
Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 40 and low near 30.
Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and breezy. High near 40 and low near 25.
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