Low pressure over lower Great Lakes early this morning will track east of southeast during the day today to be over the New England coast this evening. The forecast track of the system should keep the bulk of the snow showers and flurries is produces to the south of the Capital Region, more toward the mid Atlantic and southern New England coastal areas. A few flurries may make it into the Capital District in time for Santa’s sleigh to parade through the sky, but this looks like the worst case scenario, as most of the moisture should stay well south of the region. In fact, after a brief period of increased clouds early in the evening, clouds should decrease quickly by midnight.
As the low pressure area tracks off the coast, a gusty northwesterly wind will kick up over the Capital Region later this afternoon and this evening, adding some chill to the already respectably cold airmass in place. Temperatures will drop into the single numbers and teens. Areas to the north, that still have snow cover, may plunge below zero.
Cold high pressure will be over the region for the Christmas holiday. Fair and cold weather, with temperatures running 5 to 15 degrees below normal, are forecast. The high pressure area moves over the eastern New England coast by Thursday morning, allowing for a more westerly to southwesterly flow of air to commence, and for temperatures to slowly moderate ahead of an advancing clipper system. Some light snow showers may be generated by this feature on Thursday afternoon and evening over the Capital Region.
Another transient high pressure area builds over the region, while being centered to our south, on Friday. This high pressure area looks to exert modest control over the region’s weather through the end of the weekend. A stronger storm system, tied to some significantly colder air, will approach by early next week.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Mostly sunny. High near 30. Northwest winds 5-15 MPH.
Tonight: Increasing clouds early, and becoming breezy, with a chance of a flurry. Decreasing clouds after midnight, with slowly diminishing winds. Cold. Low near 10. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH with some gusts to near 30 MPH, diminishing to 5-15 MPH after midnight. Wind chill temperatures 5 above to 5 below zero.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny and cold. High near 20. Light northwest winds, becoming variable in direction by afternoon.
Chriastmas Night: Increasing clouds. Low in the upper teens. Temperatures may rise slowly after midnight into the 20’s. Southerly winds 5-10 MPH.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow by afternoon. High in the lower 30’s. Southerly winds 5-15 MPH, shifting west during the afternoon. Chance of snow is 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 20.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 20.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 20.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers and squalls. High near 30 and low near 20.