As New Hampshire Republicans go to the polls today to vote for who they prefer as the GOP nominee to run against Barack Obama in November, it is assumed that Mitt Romney will win the state by a comfortable margin. But in the South Carolina primary, the next stop on the Republican schedule a week from Saturday, a big question mark looms over the vote, and a Ron Paul victory is entirely possible.
According to several national polling organizations, including Rasmussen, Romney jumped into the lead in South Carolina following his razor-thin victory in Iowa. It was assumed, further, that with Romney's decisive win today in New Hampshire, the momentum he would carry would make a victory in South Carolina inevitable.
But a major in-state polling organization indicates nothing of the sort.
According to WORD-FM Talk Radio, a Fox affiliate in Greenville, Clemson University political science professor and pollster Dave Woodard says that the race is wide open and that his group which has been monitoring voter trends in recent weeks has absolutely no idea as to which way South Carolina Republicans will go.
Woodard told station manager and on-air personality Bob McClain that his group will take a survey next week, just prior to the South Carolina primary, but at this point the race is so volatile due to undecided voters and the Rick Santorum surge that it is impossible to predict the outcome.
The last survey conducted by Woodard and his 'Palmetto Poll' indicates that Newt Gingrich is hanging on to his lead, with Romney 2nd and Paul 3rd. But that was in December. Since that time everything has changed, so much so that Woodard says it is impossible to accurately monitor the movement of voters.
It is in such a volatile climate that big surprises often emerge. This is why it is entirely possible that Ron Paul could emerge the winner, given that South Carolina conservatives appeart to be split between Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.
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