Johnson and Knaus prepare for the final foray of 2009 (AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)
While Jimmie Johnson comes to Homestead with a 108-point lead over Mark Martin, who is the only driver left with a mathematical chance to dethrone Johnson, the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevy still needs a 25th place finish or better to lock up the Sprint Cup trophy.
Johnson has finished 26th or worse 47 times in his career and does not have a win at Homestead. In 2005, Johnson crashed and finished 40th. The flipside is that the No. 48 has logged five top-10s in eight starts, including back-to-back second place finishes in 2003 and 2004.
Given last week’s win in Phoenix, some may think that Johnson could be the subject of a let down from a winner’s high. Johnson has finished 26th or worse in a race following a win six times. Unfortunately, the last time such a situation happened was in 2007.
Johnson averages a 9th place finish in the follow up races to his wins. In 46 such starts, the No. 48 Chevy has logged nine wins, 23 top-fives and 31 top-10s.
So, for yet another week in NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, Johnson is the smart bet – just not for the race win in this case. Given the low attrition rates for the current Cup car compared to the previous car, Johnson will likely have to be concerned with locking in the needed 25th place throughout the course of Sunday’s race.
Hoping to leave 2009 on a high
For those who have become bored with the Chase, the interest and excitement rests on possible dark horses.
Roush Fenway Racing has a chance to make up for a relatively disappointing year. RFR has won the last five consecutive races at Homestead. Carl Edwards is the defending winner and hungry to remove the bagel from his 2009 season.
Though Matt Kenseth started the season off strong with wins at Daytona and California, the team has struggled. Jaime McMurray’s win at Talladega last month was the only other RFR win in 2009. Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle made the Chase but have had a lackluster season compared with their 2008 showings, and David Ragan has been all but silent.
Homestead remains the only track that Jeff Gordon has yet to win at, despite an average finish of 9.9. A win on Sunday could give Gordon a weekend to match Harvick’s Phoenix visit last week when his driver clinched the NCWTS title and Harvick took the race win.
The real question is: Who is the total dark horse who can run away with the race win on Sunday?
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Janelle Jalbert is a fan of a variety of racing formats and equally enjoys the history of the sport. Janelle grew up in an auto mechanic’s family and swears that there is carb spray running through her veins. She can be reached via email for both comments and story ideas. You can follow Janelle as the Southern California Motorsports Examiner on Twitter as @SoCalMotorsport.
Janelle also serves as the NASCAR Truck Series Examiner. Feel free to join the discussion about the hard racing in the CWTS at the NASCAR Truck Series Examiner fan page on Facebook
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