In one of the most important fights in the history of the UFC, heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez defends against Junior dos Santos. This fight will air tonight at 8 PM central time on FOX. This will be the UFC’s first show on network television.
Velasquez is the undefeated champion making his first title defense. Junior is the number one contender looking to make Velasquez’s reign a short one.
Velasquez defeated Brock Lesnar in convincing fashion at UFC 121 last October to grab the title. Velasquez is 9-0 with a 7-0 record in the UFC. He has dominated every opponent that has been put in his path.
Velasquez brings top-level wrestling, clinch work, and has improved every time we have seen him with his standup. He also has an endless gas tank.
For the case of Junior dos Santos, he is probably the best boxers in the heavyweight division. Junior also holds a brown belt in jiu jitsu. He sports a 13-1 record with an undefeated record of 7-0 in the UFC.
Junior has scored four of his seven UFC wins in the first stanza. Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Gilbert Yvel and Gabriel Gonzaga all fell before the four-minute mark of the first round.
When it comes to chin strength, Velasquez has shown that he can recover from a big shot. He was hurt early in the Kongo fight and recovered to completely dominate the remainder of that bout. Junior on the other hand has yet to be met with troubling circumstances in the UFC and is untested in many areas.
Look for both men to come out and get a feel for the other’s hand speed and range. Junior may have the edge early in the boxing department but as it is with most fights involving high level wrestlers, the takedown will be the key. Velasquez will have the advantage in the wrestling and department as well as the clinch.
Velasquez will need to use the threat of the takedown to loosen up Junior’s boxing. To do that, he has to establish it early. However, should Junior have early success stopping the takedown and controlling the clinch the fight could easily go in his direction.
Junior has solid takedown defense but he has not faced someone with the level of wrestling that Velasquez possesses.
If Junior is going to find any success in this fight he will have to stop the takedown and avoid the clinch. Velasquez will be relentless just as he has been in other fights. Junior will need to score early and finish the fight early. The longer the fight goes the more the pendulum will flow to the side of Velasquez.
At the end of the night Velasquez should have been able to use his wrestling to control this fight and pull out the victory to remain undefeated. This fight will be explosive in the first round with both men testing the other’s standup. The turning point will be when Velasquez shoots.
Velasquez should be able to keep control of the fight defending his title successfully for the first time.
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