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Bruce Rauner leading in the polls; Can Kirk Dillard win with big crossover vote?

Republican candidate for governor of Illinois Bruce Rauner prepares to speak on March 4, 2014 at a public forum at the David and Reva Logan Center for the Arts at the University of Chicago in Chicago, Illinois.
Photo by Pool/Getty Images

Bruce Rauner got some good news and some bad news yesterday as he seeks to become the Republican gubernatorial nominee today.

The good news for Bruce Rauner is he has a healthy lead in the polls.

Rich Miller's Capitol Fax reports that "Bruce Rauner is holding a lead in the mid 40s." The latest numbers show Bruce Rauner with 44 percent, Kirk Dillard with 27 percent, Bill Brady with 19% and Dan Rutherford trailing the field at 9 percent. In parenthesis is the previous poll and shows it is little changed, with Rauner losing two percentage points and Dillard gaining one point. The other two candidates, Brady and Rutherford are unchanged.

Bill Brady 19% (19%)
Kirk Dillard 27% (26%)
Bruce Rauner 44% (46%)
Dan Rutherford 9% (9%)

The bad news for Rauner is the dreaded crossover vote, in which Democrats pull a Republican ballot to vote for Dillard. However, for Dillard to catch Rauner, Miller says that Dillard would need 126,600 outside votes with a normal turnout total of 750,000 voters. However, Miller adds that "If the turnout is 800,000, Dillard would need 135,040 new crossovers to win."

Rauner is fearful of this crossover, hoping that it will not be enough to defeat him. Rauner is calling this crossover effort, according to Natasha Korecki of the Chicago Sun Times, an "unprecedented effort to hijack the Republican primary."

However, a number of labor unions and powerful organizations are urging membes to do just that: "Crossover and pull a Republican ballot and vote for Dillard." There is the Illinois Education Association, the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the Illinois Retired Teachers Association, AFSCME Council 31 and many other organizations.

They all started late, but the intensity is there now.

However, some are skeptical. Says We Ask America of that likelihood.

That many votes represent a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. Still, there may be enough crossovers to move numbers tomorrow. But a few won’t be enough.

Dillard needs a stampede.

A daunting task, but the unions supporting Dillard are encouraging members to do just that.

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Sources:

Rich Miller's Capitol Fax - Poll shows Rauner holding on to large lead

Chicago Sun Times - Rauner rails against possible crossover vote

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Send John Presta an email and your story ideas or suggestions, johnpresta@att.net.

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