We continue our series of examing the schedules of teams of interest in Houston. Today, we examine the University of Houston Cougars.
The Cougars biggest victory was getting a sixth year for Case Keenum, who has been a terrific college quarterback. If Keenum is healthy -- and plays like he did the first 12 games of 2009, the Cougars have a legitimate shot to run the table and perhaps threaten for a BCS bowl. In those 12 games, Keenum threw 38 TD passes with a paltry six interceptions. The Cougars were 10-2.
In the five games since, including the game he was injured at UCLA last year, he has 11 TDs and 14 interceptions. Keenum was never really 100 percent last season, even before his season ending injury.
He won't be 100 percent when the season opens, but he should be good enough to go when UCLA opens the season at Robertson.
Keenum returning to his best form isn't the only question. The Cougars defense -- which has been below average for the better part of a decade -- has to step up and be a strength as opposed to a weakness. There are also questions on the O line.
But if all three of those questions are answered in a positive fashion, the Cougars should be scary good. They have three top-level running backs, a pair of 1,000-yard receivers who are explosive playmakers, and depth at almost every position.
The schedule is frankly a cream puff. If the Cougars are closer to the 2009 team, they should be favored in perhaps every game.
IF they can answer those three big questions -- and any Cougar fan has to be seriously concerned about all three -- then this could be a special year on Cullen.
Here's how it breaks down:
Sept. 3, UCLA: The Cougars were trounced in LA last year after injuries to Keenum and Turner put a third-string quarterback in the firing line. Before that, however, the Cougars weren't playing very well anyway and weren't likely to win. UCLA had more talent and were able to run the ball almost at will against the UH defense. This year, the Bruins are a train wreck. They have issues at QB, the offensive line and lost their two best defensive players to the NFL. Rick Neuheisel is lucky to be employed and this is a must-win for the Bruins, who have a tough schedule. The Bruins can run the football, and UH has historically struggled against BCS schools that can run the ball. If Keenum struggles and UCLA controls the clock, it could be a disappointing start to the season. However, with all the issues UCLA has coming in, the Cougars should be able to win this game at home. A very critical game for UH's hopes. Prediction: Could go either way, but close loss.
Sept 10 at North Texas: The Mean Green have a new coaching staff and should be better this season. They are projected to finish as high as third in the Sun Belt and perhaps make a bowl. Running back Lance Dunbar will give UH fits, but this is a game that the Cougars should have little trouble winning. A loss would be an embarrassment. Easy win.
Sept. 17 at Lousiana Tech: This is a sneaky tough trip. Louisiana Tech should be improved, but let's be serious: If UH can't win this, then high hopes for the season are just that -- hopes. Easy win.
Sept. 24, Georgia State:These guys are still building, and should not be able to match up in any way, shape or form. Easy win.
Oct. 1, at Texas El-Paso: The Miners lose almost everyone off a very mediocre team. They are picked to finish last in C-USA West in almost every poll. However, UH historically struggles in El Paso, even when they clearly have the best team. Mike Price is a very good coach and an upset is a strong possibility. Could go either way, but close win.
Oct. 8, East Carolina: The Pirates will provide a scary test here. They can put up points, but like UH have a questionable defense. The Cougars benefit from having their toughest C-USA games at home, including this one. Another that could go either way, but close win.
Oct. 22, Marshall: The Thundering Herd are a team on the rise, but this will be a tough road trip. If UH is still healthy and playing well and Marshall leaves its band carts at home, the Cougars should roll. Easy win.
Oct. 29, Rice: For all that these teams are only five miles apart, home field has meant a lot in this series. The Cougars usually dominate at home and should do it again here. Easy win.
Nov. 5, at UAB: The Blazers are supposed to be improved every year. They never are. This shouldn't be much of a test. Easy win.
Nov. 12 at Tulane: This is a well coached football team, but Tulane simply doesn't have enough talent to compete with a healthy UH team. However, if the Cougars are unbeaten or sitting on one loss, the pressure level goes way up. Winds up being tighter than expected. Very close win.
Nov. 19 SMU: The game that should decide C-USA West. June Jones is one of the best offensive minds in college football, and he has done wonders at SMU. However, UH has done well against the Ponies in the Jones tenure and homefield should be the difference. Very close win.
Nov. 26 at Tulsa: The Cougars won here two years ago on a near miracle, but this is not an easy trip. A little concerned that the Golden Hurricane will not be as good without head coach Todd Graham, who left for Pittsburgh, but UH will have a tough time stopping QB G.J. Kinne. Very close loss.
C-USA Championship game: UCF is one of the few C-USA teams that play defense. The Knights are a big, physical unit that has been tough for UH to handle the past two seasons. They are young on offense, but have a dynamic quarterback and strong running game. Still, if this one is at Robertson, UH will have a chance to win. Could go either way, but UCF usually finds a way to beat UH. Close loss.
The Cougars swing games are UCLA, UTEP, East Carolina, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa. A worst-case scenario would be losses in all six, and if Keenum gets hurt again, that's a strong possibility. But if he is healthy, the Cougars could easily be favored in all these games with the exception of perhaps Tulsa. The low end for this team should be eight wins. The high end? A one-loss season and national ranking.
Prediction: 10-3.
Comments