61% - SAG & Oscar winners match.
67% - When SAG & Oscar nominations match 4/5, the winners match.
SAG & Oscar winners have matched for the last 3 years in a row.
These are not the best odds of the SAG awards categories, but in the last 10 years, the SAG and Oscar winners have matched 80%. 1 of those years was 2008, when Oscar gave Winslet the Lead for The Reader while SAG awarded her the Supporting. So technically, one could argue a 90% match rate in the last 10 years. It seems that 2007 had not an outright frontrunner as the SAG awarded Ruby Dee for a questionably small role and the Oscar rightfully awarded Tilda Swinton for her cold performance in Michael Clayton.
It’s a Meat and Three. Anne Hathaway’s your meat with the bulk of the awards and Helen Hunt, Sally Field and Amy Adams are your vegies, with just a clump of wins here and there.
The BAFTA’s actually have a better match rate than SAG and in the last 10 years have matched Oscar 80%. Anne Hathaway won the BAFTA this year.
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
I don’t get this nomination. She wasn’t bad, certainly not. The thing is, she didn’t have enough of a presence to really even be bad. There have been numerous Supporting roles with very little screen time, but it’s the actors that provide a presence to that role that earns them a nomination. Weaver’s whimpering half-smile-half-worrisome-grimace isn’t enough for a nomination.
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Too awkward a role too little buzz to win.
Amy Adams – The Master
Subtle? Yes, but doesn’t mean it’s not deserved. She’s a great actress and, in my opinion, her performance in this film is one of the best of the year. The Academy loves her, rightfully so, but she won’t win this year.
Sally Field - Lincoln
A slightly overrated performance, but don’t think I mean that it’s no good. People sort of expected Sally Field playing the role of Mary Todd Lincoln to be extraordinary and don’t feel right backtracking when it leaves something to be desired. It’s not a bad performance, but, if we’re being honest, here, it’s not the best.
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Hathaway just won the BAFTA, which has matched more accurately to Oscar than SAG in recent years, but what began as a majority consensus praising Hathaway’s 1-song glory as worthy of the Oscar now, after a few awards shows worth of self-aware, outrageously humble-braggy and so obviously NOT self-doubting acceptance speeches, it seems the consensus now is one of annoyance towards Hathaway, though is it enough to take away what was a deserved Oscar? I certainly hope so!
PREDICTION: Anne Hathaway