WGA – Original Screenplay
57% - WGA and Oscar winners match.
For the last 10 years, WGA and Oscar match 80%.
When WGA and Oscar nominees match 3/5 the winners match 71%. However, both of the times that the winner did not match, the Oscar winner wasn’t even nominated for WGA (Talk to Her-2002, The King’s Speech-2010). Therefore, we can’t really rule out Django Unchained or Amour. In fact, Amour has a real shot at winning this thing
Zero Dark Thirty won the WGA for Original Screenplay.
It’s really quite a joke that this film is even nominated, especially given the fact that the script was one of the worst things about it.
Tarantino, as usual, writes a truly original script. This film was absolutely fantastic, but I don’t see it winning Original Screenplay due to the other “somber” competition. Plus, what would it say if the most racially charged film won?
This might truly be the best Original screenplay out there and it would be totally fine with me if it won. However, something tells me that the more serious subject matter wins out this year.
As both touching and despairingly real as only those European films can muster; Amour is a story of true love. Though it’s not one we’re used to, it is, perhaps, the depiction of the truest form of love there is. I think Amour has a real chance of winning this Oscar. People love this film and rightfully so. It really all comes down to how people receive Zero Dark Thirty.
Zero Dark Thirty
There’s no doubt that compiling CIA and government documents and interviews together to create an “Original” screenplay was a daunting task. That’s what will be the deciding factor in its winning the Oscar. The story of the finding and killing of the world’s most evil and dangerous man, Osama Bin Laden, has our attention. Whatever problems people have with the film’s subject matter will be put aside and it will be rewarded with this Oscar.
PREDICTION: Zero Dark Thirty
…watch out for Amour.