SPOILER: Argo will win Best Picture, but we’ve got to make this thing fun somehow, so below I indulge in a little what-if's for Oscar night.
Oscar Best Picture Nominees
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Producers Guild of America (PGA)
74% - PGA and Best Picture match.
For the last 10 years, PGA & Best Picture have matched 70%.
For the last 5 years, PGA & Best Picture have matched.
Only once has a non-PGA nominated film won Best Picture (Braveheart-1995)
Argo won the PGA this year.
Below I break out all of the Best Picture nominees with some information regarding past Best Picture winners with similar nominations. I also sum up what main category each film has to win on Oscar night in order to take home Best Picture. However, even if they do exactly as I specify, they still may not win, because of Argo and how everyone feels so bad that Ben Affleck didn’t get a Director nomination that they will give him all of the other awards.
Les Miserables
To Win: No Chance, but needs to win Acting and Screenplay
No film has ever won Best Picture without either a Directing, Editing or Screenplay nomination so there is virtually no way it will win Best Picture.
Hamlet (1948) won Best Picture with only Directing and Acting nominations. It won Actor, but lost Director and had no Editing or Screenplay nominations. But that was like 65 years ago before there was Twitter and Bath Salts.
Django Unchained
To Win: No Chance, but needs to win Acting, Editing and Original Screenplay
No film has ever won Best Picture without either a Directing or Editing nomination, so there is virtually no way it will win Best Picture.
Driving Miss Daisy (1989) is the only to ever win Best Picture without a Director nomination, but it was nominated for Editing, 3 acting and won Screenplay. So, even though both films are racially charged, that doesn’t mean Django will win.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
To Win: Win Adapted Screenplay and Director or Actress (or both)
6 films have won Best Picture without an Editing nomination, but with Directing, Screenplay and Acting nominations. The difference is that all 6 of those films actually won Director and Screenplay and had more than 1 acting nomination (Ordinary People-1980, Annie Hall-1977, The Godfather: Part II-1974, A Man For All Seasons-1966, Tom Jones-1963, Marty-1955).
Tom Jones (1963) won Best Picture without an editing nomination nor an Acting win, but won Director and Screenplay. So, a film can win without an Editing nom and an Acting win, but it has to win Director and Screenplay
Amour
To Win: Win Original Screenplay and Director or Actress (or both)
See Beasts of the Southern Wild. Both films only have 1 acting nomination (Actress) and no editing nomination. Both films have a shot at winning for Screenplay. Neither have a shot at winning Best Picture.
Silver Linings Playbook
To Win: Win Director, Screenplay & at least 2 Acting (Editing to help)
2 films have won Best Picture with a Director, Editing, Screenplay and all 4 Acting nominations. (From Here to Eternity-1953 and Mrs. Miniver-1942). Statistically speaking within the confines of nominations, Silver Linings Playbook has the best shot at winning Best Picture.
If Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro win for Acting and the film wins its Screenplay, then that would go a long way towards its winning Best Picture. However, there is no way that David O. Russell wins for Director and who can say what an Editing win would do to help. If we’re looking for a true shocker on Oscar night, then Silver Linings Playbook is your culprit.
Zero Dark Thirty
To Win: Win Editing, Screenplay and Actress for good measure
Zero Dark Thirty was once the frontrunner, but a Directing snub sealed its fate. I’m not ruling this film out, though. Even if the statistics aren’t as strong as some of the previously mentioned films, I think the intangible of Zero Dark Thirty is strong.
I have to mention Driving Miss Daisy (1989) again because it is the only film to win Best Picture without a Directing nomination. However, this year is different. 14 films have won Best Picture without winning, but being nominated for, Director. 2 films won without Screenplay nominations (The Greatest Show on Earth-1952 and Hamlet-1948) and 3 films won without Acting nominations (Around the World in 80 Days-1956, The Greatest Show on Earth-1952, An American In Paris-1951). But all of those were like over 60 years ago before people started Instagramming their Starbucks cups.
Since 2000, 3 films have won Best Picture without winning, but being nominated for, Director: Crash (2005) won Editing, Screenplay and was nominated for Acting. Chicago (2002) won for Editing, Acting and was nominated for Screenplay. Gladiator (2000) was nominated for Editing and Screenplay but only won for Acting.
If Jessica Chastain wins for Acting and Zero Dark Thirty wins for Editing and Screenplay, which it very well could, then watch out for a shocker.
Life of Pi
To Win: Director, Editing and Screenplay
8 films have won Best Picture without any acting nominations (Slumdog Millionaire-2008, The Return of the King-2003, Braveheart-1995, The Last Emperor-1987, Gigi-1958, Around the World in 80 Days-1956, The Greatest Show on Earth-1952, An American In Paris-1951).
The Greatest Show on Earth (1952) actually won Best Picture with zero Acting or Editing nominations and without winning, but being nominated for Director and Editing.
Braveheart (1995) won Best Picture without zero Acting nominations, an Editing and Screenplay nomination and winning Director.
Most of the other films won Director, Editing and Screenplay.
Lincoln
To Win: Win Director, 2 Acting, Screenplay and Editing for good measure
There have been plenty of films that have won Best Picture with the same nomination setup so it is certainly not out of the question, statistically speaking, but the Argo buzz is insurmountable.
Argo
To Win: Win Editing or Screenplay
See Zero Dark Thirty. It’s the same setup except when Ben Affleck did not receive a Best Directing Oscar nomination, the Guilds and Academy and all of their family and friends went ape and awarded Argo and Affleck the Best Picture and Best Director for all of the other awards that remained unawarded. It was one huge backlash of apology awarding and it all landed in the lap of Ben Affleck. Why Ben Affleck and Why not Kathryn Bigelow?
Why not Kathryn Bigelow? Perhaps it has to do with the fact that Zero Dark Thirty depicted Americans imprisoning our enemies and using torture as a means of obtaining information. Perhaps it’s due to the fact that Bigelow won Best Director and Picture 4 years ago.
Why Ben Affleck? Perhaps it’s because, in Argo, the Americans are the hostages and not the ones doing the torturing. Perhaps it’s because Argo is, in essence, about the releasing of hostages due to an elaborate hoax involving the making of a movie. Perhaps it’s because, in Argo, Hollywood saves the day. That’s all I need to hear to make my decision.
PREDICTION: Argo
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