(WGA) – Adapted Screenplay
67% - WGA & Oscar winners match (out of 64 years).
56% - WGA & Oscar winners match when nominees match 4/5.
Only 1 (7%) time has the Oscar winner not been nominated for WGA; The Pianist in 2002. That film also won Best Actor and Director.
Argo won the WGA Adapted Screenplay award.
Scripter - Adapted Screenplay
40% - Scripter and Oscar winners match, but Scripter has never matched Oscar without also matching WGA. All of the Oscar nominees were also nominated for the Scripter.
Argo won the Scripter Adapted Screenplay award.
WGA & Scripter
When WGA & Scripter match the Oscar winner matches 75% of the time. This has been the case for the last 2 years and 4 of the last 5 years (80%).
Only 2 times when WGA & Scripter match has the Oscar winner been different: Precious (2009) & The Pianist (2002). The Pianist was NOT nominated for WGA that year. That is comparable to Beasts of the Southern Wild this year, which is nominated for the Oscar and Scripter, though not WGA. Watch out for that.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The only thing I see that it has going for it is the comparison to The Pianist in 2002, which was won the Oscar with only a Scripter nomination and no WGA nomination at all.
Life of Pi
It was said that this film was unadaptable. Well, Ang Lee pulled it off with incredible execution, though for me personally, the story wasn’t very gripping. Nevertheless, it doesn’t take away from the fact that if you’re really awarding best Adaptation, Life of Pi should probably be the winner. Based purely on buzz, it will not.
Silver Linings Playbook
Perhaps it’s not the most difficult or challenging books to adapt, but the film is very loveable and fun to watch.
There is little doubt that this must have been an incredibly difficult adaptation for Tony Kushner, but it just keeps getting beaten by Argo.
It’s a decent adaptation, though certainly not the best. The fact that it won both WGA and Scripter and keeping the 75% match rate in mind makes me think it will win again at the Oscars.