There is really no reason to devote an entire post to discussing the odds, probability and past statistics of the Best Actor Oscar, because the winner has already been decided. In fact, it was decided many, many months ago.
Screen Actors Guild
78% - SAG & Oscar winners match.
- 100% - All Oscar winners were nominated for SAG.
- 64% - When SAG nominees match 4/5, the SAG & Oscar winners match.
- For the last 8 years in a row, the SAG and Oscar winners have matched
The precursors were dominated by Daniel Day-Lewis with a light smattering of Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix.
I could fill this page up with lots of fluff to take up space, but instead, I will briefly sum up why Day-Lewis will win and why the others will not:
Denzel Washington – Flight
His movie wasn’t very good.
He was just aight in it.
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
His performance was par for the course.
His role doesn’t stand out amongst the others.
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
People are still mad at Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech wining Best Picture.
People don’t like close-ups and artistically photographed films.
People’s preconceived notions are too overpowering for them to recognize their own actual opinions.
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis played Lincoln in the latest Steven Spielberg film.
Piss-poor campaigning on behalf of the Weinstein Company.
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
The role was transformational and the film was a biopic. See below for other Oscar winners with similar attributes…
2010 – Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
2009 – Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
2008 – Sean Penn in Milk
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
2006 – Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland
2005 – Phlip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
2004 – Jamie Foxx - Ray
It’s in the bag, folks.
PREDICTION: Daniel Day-Lewis