Forecast discussion: Today, a high pressure ridge kept some dry air over eastern Massachusetts during Saturday morning. However, by the early afternoon, a weak disturbance passed through, creating some widely isolated showers, especially over New Bedford. It quickly passed towards the Cape a few hours later, before moving offshore, and partly cloudy skies reigned once again.
As we move through Saturday night, we will begin to see increasing clouds once again. Also, the dewpoint will be increasing, so the coastline may see some patchy fog before sunrise. Meanwhile, a low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes will help bring the risk of some showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Some thunderstorms may have gusty winds and periods of heavy rain with them.
A second low pressure system will help bring the next risk of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday night into Monday. This front is just passing eastern Minnesota. The front will get blocked as it tries to move offshore Monday night. So, we may see isolated showers continue into Tuesday morning. For now, the models feel the front will move the precipitation from inland areas.
A strong high pressure system over the eastern Rockies will bring drier weather for Tuesday night, Wednesday, and part of Thursday morning. However, the high will not bring any summer heat. Thanks to an upper level low that has remained over eastern Canada, our high temperatures have only been quite cooler than last year. Unfortunately, the upper level weather pattern will remain the same for the next several days.
Looking past Thursday morning, a low pressure system over eastern Canada will try to bring moisture down into the region. There is the chance of some isolated showers coming down from eastern Canada into New England. The activity returns northward on Friday, as we will see more clouds than sunshine. As we head into next Saturday, there is a chance of our streak of eight straight Saturdays in a row without precipitation comes to an end. A weak disturbance over the coastline of North Carolina may bring the risk of isolated showers into Rhode Island. However, the models do disagree on the placement of the disturbance, as well as how much moisture is in the atmosphere. The European model keeps the showers well off to our west. So, I may even take the showers out of the forecast if I can see more continuity from the European models in the next few days.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy and more humid. We will see a low of 67.
Sunday: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms starting by mid-morning. We will see a high of 80 with south-southwest winds of 14-17 mph. We may see gusts up to 25-30 mph at times.
Sunday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with patchy fog developing and a low of 69. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 11-14 mph.
Monday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms with a high of 80.
Monday night: Scattered showers/thunderstorms. We will see a low of 66.
Tuesday: Showers end by 2 a.m. with mostly sunny skies by the late morning. We will have a high of 78.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 62.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 60-63.
Thursday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the late morning. Highs 79-82, lows 63-66.
Friday: An early morning shower possible, with partly sunny skies. Highs 79-82, lows 63-66.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 77-80, lows 65-68.