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Boston weather: Weekend shaping up well

Forecast discussion: After some parts of eastern Massachusetts seeing 1-3 inches of rain over the last few days, it was nice to see the sun overhead on Thursday. A strong high pressure system will act like a dome over the eastern U.S., protecting us from any storm systems.

So, if you have any outdoor plans for the weekend, make them with confidence. If you are heading to the beaches, just take some precautions, as southwest winds this weekend may make for some moderate rip currents. Just check with the lifeguards and get updated on the water conditions. Also, bring that sunscreen, as safe sun times will only be about 15 minutes.

As we look to early next week, the computer models continue to show an unsettled pattern. However, I am still not getting much continuity from them. The American model shows a low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast moving northward for Monday morning. The low will bring scattered showers, mostly to the Cape and Islands. However, the European model does not show any low pressure system at all. Instead, it brings a cold front later by midweek, leaving us with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The American model keeps us dry on Wednesday.

So, this is beginning to shake my confidence a little bit, as the models continue to disagree as we move closer to each day. As I have noted in the last few forecasts, the European and American models have been flip-flopping on having some precipitation for Monday. Therefore, I am going to keep some showers in the forecast, although the activity may be isolated. The low may bring a few isolated early Tuesday morning before moving into the Gulf of Maine. So, we will have dry weather for most of Tuesday. I will keep the cold front passing into New England by early Wednesday afternoon, and helping to create showers and isolated thunderstorms. The front will not push offshore until late Thursday afternoon.

We will begin to feel some summer weather by next Wednesday, as high temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80’s. The dome of colder air that brought Mobile, AL its coldest low temperature in July in more than 100 years Thursday morning will arrive over us during the weekend. An upper level ridge will slowly move towards New England by the middle of the week, allowing for more tropical air to pass overhead in our atmosphere.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 61.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 82. Winds will shift to the southeast by the afternoon at 8-11 mph.
Fenway Park Forecast (7:10 p.m. vs. Kansas City): Partly cloudy, 75.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 61. Winds will be light and variable.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 64.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a high of 77.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 62.

Extended Forecast:
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible for the Cape and Islands. Highs 78-81, lows 64-67.
Tuesday: Isolated showers during the morning, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 83-86, lows 67-70.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with showers/thunderstorms by the early afternoon. Highs 86-89, lows 70-73.
Thursday: Showers/thunderstorms end by the late afternoon. Highs 82-85, lows 63-66.

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